![An empty flagpole for Finland stands between the national flags of France and Estonia outside NATO headquarters in Brussels shortly before Finland met all the requirements to join the alliance [File: Virginia Mayo/AP]](https://uslive-mediap.uslive.com/2025/01/7eec8796-ap23093329486337.jpg.webp "An empty flagpole for Finland stands between the national flags of France and Estonia outside NATO headquarters in Brussels shortly before Finland met all the requirements to join the alliance [File: Virginia Mayo/AP]")
NATO will not support Donald Trump’s bold demand for a massive hike in defense spending but is preparing to go beyond its current target. The former U.S. president proposed that members of the alliance allocate 5% of their GDP to defense. This suggestion, made during a headline-grabbing press conference, is far above the current 2% goal and seems unrealistic for most NATO countries.
Trump’s proposal causes stir
Trump’s comments reignited discussions about NATO’s defense spending. He emphasized that members failing to meet targets could risk losing U.S. protection. Currently, no NATO country, not even the U.S., spends 5% of its GDP on defense. His remarks added fuel to a press conference already loaded with discussions about Greenland, Canada, and Panama.
NATO officials acknowledge the need for increased spending but dismissed the feasibility of Trump’s 5% demand. Analysts also agreed, calling the figure politically and economically unachievable. Achieving such a level would require hundreds of billions of dollars in additional funding. However, talks about a new spending goal are underway and will likely culminate at NATO’s June summit in The Hague.
New target on the horizon
While the 5% proposal is off the table, NATO members are expected to agree on a higher target than the current 2%. Some speculate the new goal might hover around 3% of GDP. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto hinted at this possibility, saying, “It will not be 5%, which is impossible, but it will certainly be more than 2%.”
Even this moderate increase poses a challenge. Many NATO countries struggle to meet the existing 2% target. Italy, for instance, allocates only 1.5% of its GDP to defense. On the other hand, Poland leads with 4.12%, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%.
NATO spending breakdown
NATO estimates its combined defense spending in 2024 will reach $1.474 trillion. Of this, $968 billion comes from the United States, while European members and Canada contribute $507 billion. The average spending among all members stands at approximately 2.71% of GDP.
Some view Trump’s 5% suggestion as a negotiating tactic. Analysts believe he may settle for a more realistic figure, like 3%. During his last presidential campaign, Trump proposed a 3% target, suggesting it would boost defense budgets by about 30% for most NATO countries.
Defense budgets already rising
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted many European nations to boost their defense budgets significantly. However, tighter public finances and political resistance make further increases difficult. Meeting a 3% target would require billions in additional spending, a tough sell for many governments.
Fenella McGerty, a defense economics expert, noted that while recent spending hikes have been impressive, achieving new targets takes time. “Even with Europe’s extraordinary growth in defense spending – over 10% in real terms in 2024 – it could take another decade to reach 3%,” she said.
Push for European self-reliance
Many European governments believe the continent must reduce its reliance on the U.S. for defense. Countries like France and the Baltic states advocate for joint EU borrowing to fund defense projects. Germany’s upcoming national election could influence this debate, as the country has opposed such measures so far.
European allies need to invest heavily in areas currently dominated by U.S. capabilities. These include air-to-air refueling, heavy military air transport, and electronic warfare systems. Camille Grand, a former NATO official, stressed the high costs involved, calling them “big-ticket items.”
Experts weigh in
Some experts believe European countries should aim for 3% of GDP on defense to match the current security environment. However, others caution against being driven by arbitrary figures. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament’s defense subcommittee, said, “We must mobilize more money, but we shouldn’t let Trump dictate our strategy.”
The debate over NATO’s defense spending is far from over. Trump’s 5% proposal has sparked discussions, but a more realistic goal, likely around 3%, is expected to emerge. European nations face pressure to contribute more while balancing political and financial challenges. The outcome will be revealed at NATO’s June summit, where allies will aim to strike a delicate balance between ambition and practicality.
