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Impacts of a Government Shutdown: Possible Closures, Social Security Payments, and Furloughs

As the deadline approaches, Congress faces pressure to secure government funding by midnight Friday to avoid a federal shutdown. If a solution isn’t reached, hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be furloughed or compelled to work without pay, an unsettling prospect as the holiday season approaches.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan effort to avert the shutdown was scrapped after significant figures like President-elect Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk publicly opposed it. Trump particularly urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to renegotiate the agreement just days before federal funds are set to expire.

In response, Republicans quickly assembled a new funding proposal on Thursday, which seeks to ensure government operations for an additional three months while also suspending the debt ceiling for a two-year period, allowing it to remain in effect until January 30, 2027. A House vote was anticipated to take place on Thursday evening to discuss this proposal.

For those concerned about the implications of a potential government shut down, here are some critical points:

**What is a Government Shutdown?**
A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass necessary spending legislation, resulting in a stoppage of government funding unless signed into agreement by the president. If Congress does not act by Friday, a shutdown will commence.

**When Would the Shutdown Occur?**
If no continuing resolution or permanent budget measure is approved by the deadline, federal operations will cease. A temporary bill was enacted when the fiscal year ended on September 30, and that funding is set to expire at the end of this week.

**Which Agencies Will Be Impacted?**
Federal agencies have their own protocols for a shutdown, but typically, operations categorized as non-essential will cease, leading to disruptions for many government employees. Some may be placed on furlough, retaining their jobs but temporarily inactive until the government reopens. Conversely, essential workers might continue their duties without immediate pay, anticipating compensation once operations resume.

Guidelines regarding who works during a shutdown have not changed substantially since the early 1980s. A policy established during Ronald Reagan’s administration grants exemptions for employees engaged in national security or critical functions that safeguard life and property.

Essential agencies like the FBI, Border Patrol, and Coast Guard would remain operational. TSA agents would still manage security at airports. The U.S. Postal Service would not be impacted, as it functions independently.

However, national parks and monuments would close, and while military personnel would remain in their roles, many civilian staff members at the Defense Department might be furloughed. Additionally, court systems would see delays; civil cases would be halted, but criminal proceedings would persist.

Automated tax collections would proceed as planned, but audits by the IRS would be suspended.

**Will Social Security Payments be Affected?**
No, individuals receiving Social Security or Medicare will continue to receive their benefits since these payments fall under mandatory spending that does not require annual appropriations. Healthcare providers will still receive reimbursements for Medicare and Medicaid services. However, the processing of new applications could face delays; history has shown that during past shutdowns, many Medicare applicants were turned away.

**What is a Continuing Resolution (CR)?**
The term “CR,” short for continuing resolution, refers to a temporary funding measure that allows the federal government to operate while a longer-term budget is negotiated. A “clean CR” typically extends previous spending limits without any changes.

**What is an Omnibus Bill?**
Omnibus bills compile various funding measures into a single legislative package, often leaving lawmakers with little time to thoroughly review it before voting. This can happen when the time frame for separate funding proposals runs out. However, Republicans have opted against pushing an omnibus bill this time, aiming to address federal spending more comprehensively next year with Trump in office and GOP majorities in both chambers.

**Is a Shutdown Inevitable?**
While uncertainties linger, it remains to be seen whether a government shutdown will indeed occur. Last-minute negotiations frequently unfold on Capitol Hill to try to maintain government operations just before deadlines. In the past, there have been instances of shutdowns, notably six years ago linked to funding disputes for a border wall, marking the longest shutdown in history.

Throughout his presidency, Jimmy Carter experienced annual shutdowns, while President Reagan navigated through six shutdowns during his tenure. The present circumstances could echo some of these historical events as Congress races against the clock.

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