BEIJING — The diplomatic landscape is shifting as China’s relations are beginning to warm with Japan, India, and other nations that were previously embraced by former U.S. President Joe Biden. The potential resurgence of Donald Trump in the White House may present a new opportunity for China, which has consistently criticized Biden’s strategies aimed at forming partnerships with “like-minded countries” to counter China’s increasing global reach.
With the recent change in leadership in Washington, experts suggest that this may create openings for China, particularly given Trump’s track record of questioning traditional U.S. alliances. Biden’s administration worked to revitalize a coalition known as the Quad, which comprises the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. In parallel, China’s relations with these allies are gradually improving alongside a reinvigoration of ties with the United Kingdom.
According to Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, “There is a possibility that Trump may shift away from U.S. allies, prompting them to consider China’s role more seriously. This could provide a unique opportunity for Chinese diplomacy, which we should seize.” Nonetheless, the National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes highlighted that Trump has historically galvanized countries to adopt a more competitive stance towards China.
In alignment with this ongoing competition, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with foreign ministers from Australia, India, and Japan shortly after taking office. This indicates that maintaining strong relations with Quad countries and counteracting China’s influence will continue to be a primary objective under Trump’s administration.
However, any attempts at reconciliation between China and its former partners have inherent limitations. The initial stages of improved relations with the U.K. and Japan still face significant hurdles. India has been grappling with a contentious border dispute with China, which was reignited recently when Beijing established two new counties in contested territory.
Despite these tensions, indications from new leadership in countries like Australia, the U.K., and Japan reveal a willingness to enhance relations with China, especially due to its status as a significant manufacturing powerhouse and a source of essential minerals. In response, China seeks to foster these relationships to attract foreign investments to boost its economy, which may be jeopardized if Trump follows through on his threats to impose increased tariffs.
During a call with European Council President Antonio Costa, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for both sides to contribute to “stability and certainty” amid a chaotic global environment. Notably, economic and financial discussions between China and Britain resumed earlier this month following a six-year pause, suggesting a proactive approach to collaboration.
From China’s perspective, strengthening ties with American allies and enhancing economic cooperation could help mitigate the negative impacts of strained China-U.S. relationships, according to Wu.
In Washington, there exists a strong consensus across party lines regarding the necessity for the United States to succeed in the ongoing economic and technological rivalry with China. Rubio, during his confirmation hearing, labeled China as “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted,” showcasing a firm stance remaining from Biden’s tenure, which saw the continuation of tariffs initiated by Trump.
However, unlike Biden, Trump has drawn criticism from U.S. allies and partners due to controversial comments about annexing Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark, and proposing that Canada be designated as the 51st state of the U.S. Analysts suggest that Trump’s provocative rhetoric may reignite alliances that have adopted an increasingly anti-China stance since the COVID pandemic, causing concern among top strategists in Beijing.
China’s relations are not universally improving with every U.S. partner. For example, recent tensions with the Philippines have escalated due to the presence of a “monster” Chinese coast guard ship near its waters, prompting Filipino officials to express the urgency of U.S. engagement in the region.
Additionally, while China has managed to achieve a temporary resolution regarding confrontations surrounding contested areas in the South China Sea, the vague outlook of Trump’s policies has stirred both China and Japan to pursue a more stable relationship. Notable recent diplomatic exchanges include the visit of a Japanese foreign minister to China for the first time in seven years and resuming military dialogues after a five-year pause.
In the U.K., Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to mend ties with Beijing, marking a shift from his predecessor, who declared an end to the “golden era” of Sino-British relations. However, much of Europe’s approach to China remains cautious. Leaders seem more inclined to maintain partnerships with Washington, as evidenced by French President Emmanuel Macron’s assertion of France as a solid ally of Trump.
In essence, the reaction to Trump’s return will significantly shape international relationships, especially regarding China’s diplomatic activities with various nations moving forward.
