ROME — Following an unexpectedly warm rapport with U.S. President Joe Biden, Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni appears set to foster a more authentic partnership with President-elect Donald Trump, positioning her as a significant bridge between the United States and Europe.
Shortly before his swearing-in, Meloni visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate, describing the encounter as exceeding her expectations. She characterized the meeting as an affirmation of a promising relationship, remarking, “I don’t know if I can say privileged,” while emphasizing the importance of strong trans-Atlantic ties. “This collaboration creates added value, not just for Italy but for all of Europe,” she stated in a recent press briefing.
The dynamic of Meloni’s forthcoming association with Trump raises questions about its implications. Some analysts suggest she may become an influential figure for Trump or potentially serve as a vessel for Trump’s interests in Europe. Franco Pavoncello, a political scientist and president of John Cabot University in Rome, noted that “it’s evident that if Trump needs a person to reach out to in Europe, Meloni is the go-to option,” highlighting her prominence in a politically sparse European landscape.
Italy has a history marked by fluctuating governments, yet under Meloni’s leadership, it stands out as the most stable among major European and G-7 nations, as countries like Germany and France face political turbulence. Meloni has successfully transitioned her right-wing Brothers of Italy party from marginal to a central role in European politics, particularly following a strong showing in last June’s EU elections.
During her visit to Florida, Meloni’s government was simultaneously striving for the release of an Italian journalist detained in Iran since December. Her return was quickly followed by the journalist’s release, which Meloni hailed as “diplomatic triangulation” involving the U.S. and Iran. A few days later, Italy released an Iranian individual based on a U.S. warrant, and although Meloni denied Trump’s involvement, her defense minister commented that her presence alongside Trump bolstered her “credibility” during this period.
Ideologically, the two leaders align well. Meloni is aggressively addressing migration issues, seeking partnerships with African nations to deter people from leaving, and has implemented strict regulations on male asylum seekers at Italian facilities in Albania. Her administration also champions conservative family values, such as banning surrogacy and limiting abortion access. The personal rapport between Meloni and Trump is apparent, particularly during their discussions at events like the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, which led to their Mar-a-Lago meeting. Moreover, Meloni shares a friendship with Elon Musk, a notable Trump advisor.
As one of the few world leaders expected at Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Meloni’s attendance underscores her commitment to fortifying U.S.-Italian relations.
Interestingly, Meloni has also cultivated a strong connection with Biden, who initially worried that her election heralded a global shift towards right-wing politics. However, her supportive stance towards Ukraine and willingness to reconsider Italy’s role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative alleviated some of Biden’s apprehensions. Their meetings in Washington are particularly noteworthy for an Italian leader within such a brief term. Although a planned visit by Biden to Italy was canceled in light of domestic issues, a phone call late last week confirmed ongoing communication, where Biden acknowledged Italy’s backing of Ukraine and praised its role in multilateral organizations like the G7 and NATO.
Despite Meloni’s pro-Atlantism securing her relationship with Biden, potential conflicts with Trump could emerge. Trump has urged NATO allies to escalate defense spending to 5% of national GDP, while a significant portion of Europe, including Italy, remains below the 2% benchmark. Mario Del Pero, a transatlantic relations expert, commented that Trump’s approach towards Ukraine may challenge Italy’s diplomatic stance.
Meloni has navigated tricky waters regarding Trump’s provocative statements, notably his suggestions of territorial expansion involving Greenland, Canada, and Panama, which she has characterized as strategic deterrents.
Additionally, Trump’s proposed tariffs could jeopardize Italy’s economy, potentially costing it up to $7 billion given its substantial trade surplus with the U.S. This dynamic raises crucial considerations for Meloni, who is perceived as a staunch nationalist prioritizing Italian interests. While this may yield benefits for Italy, it could also disrupt European unity in the long run.
Her reported collaboration with Musk’s SpaceX for communications via Starlink technology poses challenges to European initiatives like the Iris2 project, further complicating the landscape. Analysts caution against conflating her nationalist priorities with broader EU interests, implying that she might actually serve as a conduit for Trump’s goals in Europe rather than a defender of collective European interests.
In conclusion, while Meloni’s tenure reflects a complex navigational course through transatlantic relations, it remains to be seen how effectively she can balance her commitments to both the U.S. and her European counterparts amid ongoing geopolitical challenges.
