BEIRUT – Tensions in the Middle East are shifting as both Lebanon and Syria enforce strict measures against armed Palestinian factions that have long maintained a presence within their borders. These groups, historically used to launch assaults against Israel, now find themselves increasingly constrained as geopolitical dynamics evolve.
In Syria, the restructuring under the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is reshaping alliances and power dynamics. Previously loyal to the Assad regime, key Palestinian factions, such as those allied with the deposed Assad dynasty, are under pressure as the new government moves to consolidate control and pursue remnants of the old guard’s security apparatus. This marks a significant departure from past strategies where these factions had substantial autonomy.
Meanwhile, Lebanon is experiencing its own internal shifts. Following an exhaustive conflict with Israel, Hezbollah, Iran’s crucial ally in the region, has emerged weakened. Concurrent with these events, Lebanon’s nascent government is committed to ensuring that all military capabilities within its territory, including those held by Hezbollah and Palestinian entities, are aligned with state policies.
On a diplomatic front, Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa has initiated indirect discussions with Israel via unnamed mediators. This dialogue aims to defuse heightened tensions following an uptick in Israeli air raids. Within this context, the crackdown on radical Palestinian groups, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad involved in the 2023 Gaza strikes alongside Hamas, is especially pertinent to Israeli interests.
While Syrian officials have been reticent, a long-term Palestinian resident in Damascus reveals that factions have been compelled to disarm, with future interactions by Syrian governance limited to the official Palestinian embassy. The limitations imposed restrict these groups’ activities to non-military domains, restricting their previously extensive influence.
For decades, Palestinian factions set roots in Lebanese and Syrian refugee camps, collaborating significantly with Assad regimes and Hezbollah in military endeavors. Leaders from groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad benefitted from these strategic locales for years. However, regional dynamics since late 2024, shifting against Iran’s strategic interests in the Levant, are compelling recalibrations among these factions.
Syria’s renewed policy prohibits the presence of arms within Palestinian camps, with state officials emphasizing national protection regardless of cultural heritage. Furthermore, the state refuses to let its lands serve as a launch venue for any attacks against neighboring countries. Recent episodes have witnessed the detention of key figures from Iran-aligned groups, signaling these shifts.
In the wake of these developments, Palestinian factions are seeking to establish harmonious relations with emerging Syrian authorities—an underlying survival strategy amid evolving circumstances. Despite frustration over these changes, their constrained status leaves them largely powerless as guests rather than sovereign actors.
In Lebanon, efforts to strengthen military influence along the southern frontier with Israel coincide with reclaiming vital border paths previously utilized for transiting arms and colleagues. This redirection undermines long-established networks crucial to Hezbollah and factions like the PFLP-GC, already impacted by the broader Syrian political transformation.
The Lebanese situation continues evolving following intensified Israeli strikes after alleged provocations by Hamas from Lebanese holdings. For the first time, Lebanon’s governance took noticeable steps, apprehending suspects involved in such actions and coercing Hamas to surrender militants. Hamas now faces substantial pressures to curtail its military programs under Lebanese demands.
President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon, supported by Western and Arab states distinct from Iranian influence, insists on nullifying any militant actions that might jeopardize national security. This aligns with a broader policy shift after long periods of tacit acceptance of armed factions in overstretched refugee locales, an acknowledgment echoed by regional analysts observing unprecedented political conditions.
In a culmination of these geopolitical shifts, the Lebanese government insists on a phased handover of Hamas military assets, synchronizing with a visit by Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas intended to underscore shifting power dynamics among Palestinian factions within Lebanon.