NEW YORK — Starting this Wednesday, Roki Sasaki will have a nine-day opportunity to sign with Major League Baseball (MLB) teams. This unique situation is notable not only for Sasaki but also for the implications it holds for many Latin American teenagers whose potential deals are currently on hold, awaiting his decision.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are seen as the leading candidates to secure Sasaki’s signature, with the Toronto Blue Jays also in the mix.
At just 23 years of age, Sasaki is a highly sought-after right-handed pitcher. If he had stayed injury-free and opted to postpone his MLB debut until after the 2026 season, he could have landed a staggering nine-figure contract. For reference, fellow pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto took this path and signed a phenomenal 10-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers in December 2023, setting a new record for pitchers.
However, since Sasaki is under 25 and has not played the required six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), he is classified as an international amateur according to MLB regulations. This limits him to a minor league contract and subjects him to strict financial caps established through a collective bargaining agreement in 2012, with an enforced spending cap added in 2017.
Sasaki’s signing will have a significant impact on Latin American youth. He is grouped with the 2025 international amateur class, mostly composed of 16-year-olds born between September 1, 2007, and August 31, 2008. The signing window begins this Wednesday. Sasaki’s window for signing is limited due to a 45-day posting period dictated by the MLB-NPB agreement, meaning he must complete a deal by 5 p.m. EST on January 23. After that date, his rights will stay with the Chiba Lotte Marines, his current team in Japan.
The majority of international amateur free agents are young talents from Latin America. Last year alone, data shows that there were 546 signings from the Dominican Republic, 365 from Venezuela, and smaller numbers from countries like Mexico, Panama, and Colombia. Although the 2025 class can’t officially ink contracts until Wednesday, informal agreements—often referred to as handshake deals—are commonly made in locations like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, often involving substantial sums pledged to young athletes from impoverished backgrounds.
Each MLB team has a bonus pool they can allocate to international amateurs, ranging from approximately $5.1 million to $7.6 million. The potential signing of Sasaki could consume an entire team’s bonus pool, likely forcing them to abandon handshake agreements to accommodate the larger financial commitment. This can complicate matters for players affected, as other teams likely have similar agreements that consume significant portions of their own pools.
In the previous year, 290 contracts were formalized right as the signing window opened. This year, clubs appear to be biding their time, possibly delaying certain agreements to prioritize their pursuit of Sasaki. Some players, in anticipation, may reconsider their plans; for instance, reports suggest that Dominican shortstop Darell Morel will opt to sign with Pittsburgh instead of the Dodgers.
Regarding bonus pools, the amount a team possesses is influenced by its prior season’s performance along with the spending on free agents. For the upcoming 2025 season, eight teams will boast the highest bonus pools at nearly $7.6 million, including the Athletics, Cincinnati, and Detroit. Next in line are six clubs with around $6.9 million: Arizona, Baltimore, and others. Another twelve teams fall within the $6.3 million range, while the Astros and Cardinals have around $5.6 million, with the Dodgers and Giants trailing at $5.1 million.
As of Wednesday, teams can execute trades aimed at enhancing their signing bonus pool by up to 60%. These trades must occur in increments of $250,000, except in cases where a team commences a single trade of its entire remaining amount.
So why would an organization exhaust its bonus pool on Sasaki? An elite player with proven credentials in high-level tournaments and professional leagues, Sasaki’s desire to play at the top level may outweigh the immediate financial rewards of his first MLB contract. During the 2023 World Baseball Classic, he showcased his potential, throwing 21 out of 66 pitches exceeding 100 mph in a group match against the Czech Republic, hitting a top speed of 101.9 mph.
In his previous season, Sasaki recorded a 10-5 win-loss record with a 2.35 ERA over 18 outings, overcoming shoulder issues. Despite being limited, he maintained impressive stats, striking out 129 batters across 111 innings and achieving a 7-4 record with a 1.78 ERA in 2023, playing through an oblique injury. Over his four-year career with the Marines, he has amassed a record of 29-15 and a 2.10 ERA, notably pitching a perfect game in April 2022.
If Sasaki secures a spot with a major league team for the upcoming 2025 season, which seems likely, he would earn the league minimum of $760,000. He could enter arbitration eligibility following the 2027 season and timetable for free agency after the 2030 season.
Under the existing posting system, the Marines stand to receive a modest release fee, which equates to 25% of Sasaki’s signing bonus. This structure mirrors that of Shohei Ohtani, who signed with the Los Angeles Angels for $2.315 million ahead of the 2018 season.
Ohtani’s decision to join MLB early proved lucrative, as he garnered varying salaries in his initial seasons, eventually leading to a monumental 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers ahead of the 2024 season.
