On Sunday, the Denver Broncos (10-7) are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills (13-4) at 1 p.m. EST, broadcast on CBS. The betting line from BetMGM indicates that the Bills are favored by 9 points. The all-time series shows the Bills leading with a record of 23-17-1. Additionally, the Broncos have performed well against the spread this season with a record of 12-5, while the Bills sit at 10-7. The teams last clashed on November 13, 2023, when the Broncos claimed victory with a score of 24-22 in Orchard Park, New York.
In their most recent outings, the Broncos enjoyed a decisive 38-0 victory over the Chiefs, while the Bills fell to the Patriots in a closer 23-16 contest. Analyzing their respective offensive performances, the Broncos rank 19th overall with their rushing offense at 16th and passing at 20th, producing the 10th highest scoring total in the league. Conversely, the Bills boast a 10th overall ranking in offense with the rushing and passing units ranked 9th and 9th, respectively, leading to the second-highest scoring output.
On defense, the Broncos are formidable, rated 7th overall, 3rd against the rush, and 3rd in scoring defense, while their passing defense is rated 19th. The Bills perform slightly lesser defensively, sitting 17th overall, 12th against the rush, 24th against the pass, and 11th in scoring defense. Notably, the Broncos have a positive turnover differential of plus-6, while the Bills excel with a plus-24 ratio.
For the Broncos, a standout player is quarterback Bo Nix, who was the sixth QB chosen in the most recent NFL draft. Nix had a remarkable rookie season, throwing for 29 touchdowns, just shy of the rookie record set by Justin Herbert. His stellar performance against the Chiefs earned him the title of AFC’s Offensive Player of the Week. Nix also set franchise records with an impressive completion rate of 89.7 percent and achieving the most completions to start a game as a rookie, with 18 completions.
For the Bills, quarterback Josh Allen, now in his seventh season, has an impressive playoff record of 4-0 in his last four wild-card games at home. During these games, he has amassed 1,187 passing yards on 91 completions, throwing 13 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Allen has also demonstrated his rushing ability with 214 yards and two rushing touchdowns this season and has notably reduced his interception count to a career-low six.
A pivotal matchup in this game will be between the Bills’ offensive line and the Broncos’ defensive line. Buffalo’s offensive line, which has maintained a consistent lineup most of the season, allowed the fewest sacks (14) in the league, while Denver’s defensive line recorded an impressive 63 sacks this season, leading the NFL.
In terms of injuries, the Broncos are reporting no significant health concerns as they enter the game in top form, while Bills returner Brandon Codrington is questionable with a hamstring injury. Apart from that, Buffalo also appears to be at full strength, having overcome most earlier health issues.
Historically, the Bills have been dominant in recent encounters, winning five of the last seven matchups and three of the last four at home since 2008. The last contest was particularly dramatic as Denver’s kicker, Wil Lutz, scored a game-winning field goal as time expired after a missed attempt was overturned due to a Buffalo penalty. This prompted the dismissal of Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey a day later. In their only previous playoff matchup, the Bills triumphed over the Broncos for a 10-7 win in the 1991 AFC Championship, a game that propelled Buffalo to four consecutive Super Bowl appearances.
Looking at some impactful statistics, the Broncos are making their first playoff appearance since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2016, marking the end of an eight-year playoff drought—the longest for a team with a Super Bowl victory. Bo Nix showed significant progress throughout the season, culminating in a total of 29 touchdowns. Meanwhile, receiver Courtland Sutton achieved a career-high in receptions and was the first Broncos receiver to break the 1,000-yard barrier since 2019. Marvin Mims has had a surge in production lately, catching multiple touchdown passes over the last fortnight. On defense, players like Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, and Zach Allen have set career records in sacks, showcasing a formidable pass rush.
For the Bills, this playoff appearance marks their sixth consecutive run and seventh appearance in eight seasons under coach Sean McDermott. Although they have had solid seasons, they have fallen short in their past three division round matchups. Despite some playoff challenges, Allen’s performance has been noted as he aims to improve his playoff legacy.
