In Washington, a recent U.S. intelligence evaluation has indicated that Iran’s nuclear program has only been slightly delayed by U.S. attacks, contrary to assertions by President Donald Trump about its complete destruction. Two informed sources specified that the Defense Intelligence Agency’s report issued on Monday contradicts statements made by both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While significant damage from the strikes at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan was noted, the facilities remain functional. These sources opted to stay anonymous as they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
The White House has dismissed this assessment, labeling it as wholly inaccurate. On Wednesday, the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, announced via X that new intelligence supports Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were entirely decimated, suggesting that rebuilding would take many years. Gabbard’s office, however, has refrained from providing additional information about the new intelligence or whether it will be declassified.
The U.S. remains hopeful about renewing talks with Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. Nevertheless, there is concern among experts that recent strikes may provoke Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. The intelligence report also indicates that some of Iran’s enriched uranium required for weaponization was evacuated from affected sites pre-strike, and their centrifuges, crucial for further enriching uranium, are still largely operational.
A detailed look at the Fordo uranium enrichment site reveals that although the entrance was destroyed and infrastructure damaged, the core underground facilities remain intact. Intelligence had previously forewarned of such an outcome prior to the attack. Meanwhile, Trump has maintained that the airstrikes accomplished their goals, accusing news outlets of distorting the facts. At a NATO summit in the Netherlands, he reaffirmed his stance that the strikes constituted “obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced an investigation into the leak of the intelligence assessment, describing the report as “preliminary” and “low confidence.” Likewise, Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized the source of the leaks, calling them “professional stabbers.” CNN had first reported on this intelligence on Tuesday.
While the CIA and DNI office have not commented on the DIA’s findings, Israeli authorities have also not released any formal assessment regarding the impact of U.S. strikes on Iran. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, condemned the leak and claimed it was treasonous, reiterating that the strikes effectively rendered Iran incapable of pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Netanyahu lauded the U.S.-Israeli collaboration, crediting it with setting back Iran’s nuclear ambitions significantly, and thanked Trump for support in what he termed a historic alliance.
Experts suspect that despite American and Israeli airstrikes, Iran may have covertly transported essential components of its nuclear program to undisclosed locations to safeguard its assets. Satellite images have depicted activity around sites like Fordo, with speculation suggesting movement of enriched uranium and possibly other nuclear equipment. Even post-strike, experts argue that Iran persists with the potential to eventually reconstruct its nuclear capabilities.
Iran maintains that its nuclear endeavors serve peaceful purposes, although enriched uranium levels have been elevated beyond civilian requirements. Prior to the strikes, the U.S. and others assessed that Iran had not decided to develop an operational nuclear weapon, though the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated Iran possesses sufficient enriched uranium for multiple nuclear bombs.
Vice President JD Vance expressed on Fox News Channel that even if Iran holds its enriched uranium, the U.S. has thwarted their pathway to converting it into a nuclear weapon. He elaborated that without the capacity to upgrade uranium to weapons-grade levels, Iran’s program is effectively neutered.
Some experts, however, remain cautious. They suggest that if Iran intended to restart a covert program, the loss of vital resources from airstrikes would complicate any attempt to fast-track nuclear weapon development. Yet, Tehran reportedly possesses sufficient infrastructure and material to reinitiate its covert initiatives, sparking concern among nonproliferation policy analysts.