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AP Analysis: Anticipations for Louisiana’s Election Day

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AP Analysis: Anticipations for Louisiana’s Election Day


Louisiana voters will have the opportunity to determine which presidential candidates will earn their eight electoral votes on November 5. In addition to the presidential race, the ballot will also feature contests for the U.S. House and two statewide measures.

The state has consistently leaned Republican in presidential elections since 2000, with areas outside the major cities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge predominantly supporting GOP candidates. The number of registered Democrats in Louisiana has been declining, while Republican registrations have notably increased.

Out of the six U.S. House districts in Louisiana, four are deemed safe for Republican candidates. The 2nd District, based in New Orleans, has historically been a secure seat for Democrats. A recent development includes the establishment of a sixth district that has a majority Black population, a result of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling from the previous May. Two prominent figures in the House Republican leadership, Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, are both seeking re-election.

The November 5 election is unique in that it will serve as an open primary for office contests other than the presidential race. This means that Louisiana has not yet conducted primaries to narrow down the candidates for offices apart from the presidency.

In the election, a candidate must secure at least 50% of the votes, plus one, to win outright on November 5. If this threshold is not met, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff on December 7, which is considered Louisiana’s general election. Most races on the ballot feature at least three contenders.

It’s anticipated that Democratic votes may be concentrated in the early and late stages of the counting process on election night. Initial counts are usually composed of mail ballots and early votes, released as a single report for their precincts, traditionally favoring Democratic candidates, although the difference is diminishing. Late counts are expected from areas like New Orleans and East Baton Rouge, which are known Democratic bastions, arriving after many other regions. The effect of these early and late Democratic votes will be closely watched in a state that is trending more Republican.

When it comes to reporting outcomes, the news outlet will refrain from making predictions and will only declare a winner once it concludes that no further developments could alter the standing of the trailing candidates. If a result remains uncertain, the news outlet will continue to provide updates on significant events, such as candidates conceding or claiming victory, while making it clear that no winner has yet been declared.

Here’s what to anticipate for the 2024 election in Louisiana:

Election Day: November 5.
Poll Closing Time: 9 p.m. ET.
Presidential Electoral Votes: 8 awarded to the statewide winner.
Key Races and Candidates: President: Harris (D), Trump (R), Robert Kennedy Jr. (Independent), Chase Oliver (Libertarian), Jill Stein (Green), Cornell West (Justice for All), among others.
Other Races of Interest: U.S. House and a statewide ballot measure.

Recent Presidential Results:
2020: Trump (R) 58%, Biden (D) 40%. The race was called on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, at 9 p.m. ET.
Voter Registration and Turnout:
Registered voters: 3,019,315 (as of October 1, 2024). Approximately 38% are Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 28% are registered as other.
Voter turnout during the 2020 presidential election was 69% of registered voters.

Pre-Election Day Voting:
Votes cast before Election Day 2020 accounted for about 46% of the total vote. Details on the votes cast prior to Election Day 2024 can be checked closer to the date.
Voting Counting Duration:
The first votes were reported on November 3, 2020, at 9:06 p.m. ET, with roughly 88% of the total votes reported by midnight ET.