Israel has executed a comprehensive offensive across Iran, significantly impacting Tehran’s nuclear program. This operation has undermined Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium, potentially delaying the country’s nuclear ambitions by several months or even years. Key military figures and nuclear scientists were killed in the strikes, which also targeted a section of a facility tasked with enriching uranium to levels exceeding those necessary for nuclear power generation. Critical backup power for the plant’s underground section was damaged, possibly affecting sensitive equipment.
Since the U.S. withdrew from an agreement in 2018 meant to limit Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities, Tehran’s nuclear program has rapidly advanced. Iran asserts its program is peaceful; however, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised concerns that Iran could produce nuclear weapons given its stockpile of enriched uranium.
Although nuclear regulators indicated that the likelihood of heightened radiation levels is low, despite part of a fuel-enrichment plant being dismantled, experts are evaluating the impact of the assault on Iran’s nuclear progression.
The Israeli attack has apparently inflicted severe damage, significantly setting back Iran’s nuclear project, according to Fabian Hinz, an Iran nuclear program expert from the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. David Albright, a nuclear weapons authority, suggested that this initial offensive could stall Iran’s nuclear weapon development pursuits by about a year. The extent to which Israeli forces have also targeted specialist suppliers remains uncertain.
Israel is thought to be responsible for numerous prior assaults targeting Iranian nuclear scientists and infrastructure over the years. A major goal of the latest strikes, as speculated by Hinz, is to impair Iran’s ability to manufacture centrifuges, essential for uranium enrichment – a critical step toward nuclear weapon creation. Developing an effective detonator and delivery mechanism remains a technical challenge for Iran.
Iran maintains two significant uranium-enrichment facilities and has announced plans for a third. The latest Israeli strikes concentrated on the civilian-protected Natanz facility. According to Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, the above-ground portion of the site was significantly impacted, specifically the section where uranium was enriched up to 60%, along with essential electrical infrastructure. While the buried, and thus protected, part of Natanz seemingly escaped damage, the power loss may have compromised centrifuges.
Considering that multiple centrifuges were likely operational at the time, the attack’s repercussions could be considerable as centrifuges are vulnerable to high-speed shock waves and power disruptions. Meanwhile, most of Iran’s centrifuges operate at Natanz to achieve a 5% enrichment level necessary for nuclear power stations. Fordo, situated beneath a mountain, hosts another facility where uranium reaches 60% enrichment – a step away from nuclear weapons-grade levels.
Reports indicated two explosions near Fordo following the attack, yet striking the entrance might only provide temporary disruption. Unlike the U.S., which possesses large earth-penetrating bombs, Israel lacks such weaponry capable of breaching Fordo’s fortress-like mountain.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that strikes would persist “for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.” The bold attacks are attributed to Israel’s exceptionally detailed intelligence on Iran’s nuclear facilities and precise targeting capabilities, possibly indicating the potential for further sabotage rather than full-blown destruction.
Despite the facility’s affected state, IAEA’s Grossi noted no change in radiation levels. The incidental radiation risk would likely be minimal, similar to exposure levels encountered during transatlantic flights, unless large uranium quantities were ingested. However, uranium’s combination with fluorine gas during enrichment could pose a hazardous fluorine exposure risk.