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Armageddon avoided: How close Biden came to nuclear conflict with Russia over Ukraine

In Bob Woodward’s forthcoming book, War, President Joe Biden is reported to have directly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The Biden administration received intelligence suggesting Putin might consider nuclear strikes to avoid battlefield defeats, prompting urgent diplomatic action.

Biden instructed his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to relay a message to Russian officials, outlining severe consequences if they resorted to nuclear weapons. Additionally, Biden personally sent a warning to Putin, cautioning against what would lead to “catastrophic consequences.”

DRUZHKIVKA, UKRAINE – OCTOBER 10: Ukrainian firefighters at the scene of destroyed building following Russian air attack in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on October 10, 2024. (Photo by Maciek Musialek/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Putin’s nuclear threats have often accompanied the war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022. U.S. intelligence assessed a 50 percent likelihood that Russia would turn to tactical nuclear weapons if Ukrainian forces made significant gains, especially after their success in reclaiming Kharkiv and advancing on Kherson in late 2022.

The book also describes Sullivan’s unease upon receiving the intelligence report in September 2022. Biden advised that Sullivan’s communication with Russian officials should not be overly aggressive but should convey the seriousness of the U.S. response if nuclear weapons were used.

Biden also discussed nuclear deterrence with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who reportedly agreed to caution Putin as well. In another tense exchange, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confronted Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, firmly warning that any nuclear strike would be seen as a global catastrophe. Shoigu, feeling threatened, responded defensively, but Austin made clear that the U.S. would not tolerate any use of nuclear weapons.

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