NEW YORK – This Fourth of July brings an extra reason for celebration: hosting a pool party this season will be more budget-friendly than it has been in past years, according to preliminary data from a market research firm.
According to an analysis by consumer data provider Numerator, the total cost for essentials like beach towels, beverage coolers, bathing suits, and other summer necessities averaged $858 in June—the lowest recorded amount for the year since 2020. This finding suggests that so far, American consumers haven’t felt significant impacts from the imposition of tariffs on foreign goods.
However, hosting a feast for pool party guests may still hit the wallet harder. The Agri-Food Institute at Wells Fargo anticipates that consumers should plan to spend around $130, which is 2.2% more than last year, to provide food and beverages for ten attendees at a traditional Independence Day cookout.
Numerator, which monitors U.S. retail prices using data from sales receipts, online activities, and insights from a panel of 200,000 shoppers, didn’t factor food prices into its analysis. Instead, it assessed the average purchase price of 16 summer items typically manufactured in China to ascertain this season’s pricing trends.
Included in the mock shopping list for a poolside gathering were four beach towels, a cooler, swimwear for two adults and one child, a grill, four patio chairs and cushions, a patio umbrella, and outdoor pillows. Recreational supplies also accounted for a cornhole set, two pairs of swim goggles, a set of diving rings, two beach balls, and two pool floats or noodles.
Numerator’s chief economist, Leo Feler, proposed several reasons for the 11% price drop observed last month compared to June 2023, when costs were at a high of $966, and an 8.4% reduction from June 2024.
Retailers and wholesale suppliers ordering from Chinese manufacturers may have overstocked in an attempt to circumvent high tariff expenses, Feler suggested. With wavering consumer confidence indicating potential weak sales, businesses may have issued early discounts to prevent excess inventory.
In light of the often volatile trade relationship with China, retailers might have chosen to shoulder initial tariff costs instead of determining how much more to charge their customers, Feler added. The tariff rate on Chinese goods surged to 145% in April, only for a deal between China and the U.S. last month to lower the overall rate to 55%.
Suppliers typically operate on six-month contracts signed both in early and mid-year, which means many agreements for items such as patio tables and chairs were finalized even before metal furniture was subjected to a 25% tariff, which increased to 50% last month.
For those hoping to purchase a new batch of beach towels or replace an outdated cooler, Feler advises postponing until August when prices usually drop further, although waiting until the following year could be risky if tariffs linger.
While current bargains might make pool party preparations seem more affordable, many economists and retail industry experts still foresee that consumers will bear the cost of the tariffs. As early as July and August, price hikes are expected for back-to-school items.
It may turn out that the timeline for these additional import taxes to become apparent in retail settings could mirror the supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, contributing to inflationary pressures in the U.S. during 2021 and 2022.
“It wasn’t like there was an immediate impact,” explained Feler. “At first, a few prices went up, followed by a few more and so on, and gradually it gained momentum.”
Food prices are notorious for their volatility compared to other retail goods. Beef costs have climbed 7.4% from last year due to diminishing cattle stock, whereas chicken prices have only risen by 1%, as noted by Wells Fargo. Meanwhile, cherry tomato prices have increased by 3.7% in anticipation of the upcoming tariff on Mexican tomato imports. Conversely, watermelon and strawberry prices have decreased.
On the beverage front, according to Datasembly, a 12-pack of soda is expected to be 8.85% more expensive this year, partly due to the tariffs on imported aluminum raising can prices. Wells Fargo suggests opting for a 2-liter soda bottle instead, noting it has only a 2% price increase compared to the previous year.