NAWA, Syria — In response to an unexpected offensive by insurgents in Syria’s northwest late last year, representatives from various countries with vested interests in the conflict convened in Qatar to determine their next steps. Following a meeting on December 7, officials from nations including Turkey, Russia, Iran, and several Arab states came to a consensus that insurgent forces would halt their progress in Homs, the last significant urban center north of Damascus, with the expectation of engaging in internationally facilitated discussions regarding a political transition involving Syrian President Bashar Assad.
However, insurgent factions based in the south had different intentions. They advanced towards the capital, managing to reach the largest square in Damascus just before dawn. This was swiftly followed by the arrival of northern insurgents, primarily from the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who coordinated their efforts with their southern counterparts, as President Assad fled the scene.
HTS has since emerged as the dominant authority in Syria, having established a powerful governance following its collaboration with southern fighters during the rapid offensive. Nonetheless, the atmosphere amongst southern factions remains one of caution, sparking uncertainties about the interim governance’s potential to unify a disparate mix of former rebel groups, each characterized by unique leaders and ideologies.
HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has advocated for the establishment of a unified national army and security forces. Efforts by interim defense minister Murhaf Abu Qasra have included discussions with various armed groups. Yet, notable southern leaders, such as rebel commander Ahmad al-Awda, have declined to participate in these meetings. Queries directed at interim government officials went unanswered.
The southern province of Daraa holds significance as the birthplace of the Syrian uprising in 2011. “Our hands were forced when we were met with government repression during protests,” explained rebel leader Mahmoud al-Bardan. The dynamics of the southern rebel movements differ markedly from their northern counterparts, exhibiting a more localized approach with lesser Islamist influence, according to Aron Lund, a fellow at the Century International think tank.
He elaborated on the differences in foreign support, noting that while Turkey and Qatar favored Islamist factions in the north, the southern insurgency was influenced by Jordanian and American backing that nudged them in a different direction. In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a “reconciliation agreement” mediated by Russia with Assad’s administration. Some former fighters relocated to Idlib, a common destination for those fleeing areas retaken by government forces, while others chose to remain behind.
This arrangement allowed many southern factions to retain their military capabilities. “We only relinquished heavy weapons; our light arms remained with us,” asserted al-Bardan. Subsequently, when the HTS-led rebels commenced their surprise Aleppo offensive last year, those light weapons were put back into action. Southern factions from Daraa, Sweida, and Quneitra revived and established a joint operations center to collaborate with groups in the north.
On December 7, a sentiment was expressed by Nassim Abu Ara, an official from one of the major southern rebel factions, that an agreement had been conveyed indicating a pause in military actions in Homs, allowing for potential negotiations regarding President Assad’s future or a transitional phase. However, Abu Ara reported that they proceeded into Damascus, disregarding the suggested agreement. Al-Bardan corroborated this account, emphasizing that such directives were seen as binding only on the northern factions.
Executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Ammar Kahf, revealed that an agreement had been reached among the involved nations to halt military actions in preparation for negotiations in Geneva regarding transitional arrangements. Still, it remained unclear whether any Syrian faction, including HTS, accepted this plan, as representatives did not respond to inquiries.
Following the arrival of armed groups in Damascus, initial moments were filled with chaos. Observers noted that HTS-led forces attempted to restore order as tensions arose when HTS fighters tried to prevent members of other factions from seizing abandoned military supplies. Abu Ara acknowledged the upheaval but suggested it was a natural response from groups experiencing a sudden victory.
Recent visits to Daraa’s western countryside revealed no evident presence of HTS forces. At one former site of the Syrian army, a fighter from the Free Syrian Army, the principal faction in the area, was stationed, guarding abandoned tanks that had once belonged to the former army. “These will belong to the forthcoming state and army whenever they are established,” noted fighter Issa Sabaq.
The process to form such a state remains fraught with difficulties. On New Year’s Eve, groups from the Druze-majority city of Sweida successfully blocked HTS security forces from entering, citing a lack of prior notification. According to Ahmed Aba Zeid, a researcher focusing on southern insurgent factions, some groups are adopting a wait-and-see stance before consenting to dissolve and relinquish their armaments.
In many regions, local armed factions continue to function as the dominant security forces. Earlier this month, Daraa’s new police chief appointed by the HTS-led interim government, Badr Abdel Hamid, convened with local leaders in the town of Nawa to strategize about the future of their police force, stating that they have engaged in “constructive and positive cooperation” with surrounding factions and that extending the “state’s influence” is a gradual process.
Factions in the area find themselves contemplating their futures. “Will we have a strong army, or will it be a border security force or one focused on counterterrorism?” was the question posed by Abu Ara, who expressed optimism that a common understanding could be reached. He acknowledged fears of potential conflict but emphasized the necessity for unity, stating, “Our country is weary of war.”
