TORONTO — In the upcoming Canadian parliamentary election, the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump looms large, as his aggressive trade tactics and suggestions of annexing Canada as the 51st state have stirred nationalistic sentiments across the country. This surge in nationalism has seemingly boosted the Liberal Party’s standing, significantly altering the election narrative.
“Trump has become central to this campaign,” noted former Quebec Premier Jean Charest. “The main question has become which leader can effectively stand up to Trump. Everything has changed.”
The last time foreign policy had such a significant impact on a Canadian election was 1988 when free trade with the United States was a pivotal issue. The current political climate has allowed Prime Minister Mark Carney, who assumed office on March 14 after Justin Trudeau stepped down, to gain a lead in the polls ahead of Monday’s election. This development marks a surprising turnaround for a party that previously faced a potential landslide defeat due to Trump’s antagonistic posture toward Canada’s economy and independence.
“We find ourselves in a crisis,” Carney emphasized. “President Trump’s actions threaten Canada — our businesses, workers, and retirees’ savings are at risk. This is not just economic but an existential threat.”
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, once expected to secure the role of prime minister, had been the frontrunner in bringing his party back to power after a ten-year hiatus. However, Trump’s aggressive rhetoric might deter support for his ideological allies overseas.
Charest, a centrist who governed Canada’s French-speaking province between 2003 and 2012, suggested Trump’s overseas supporters should reconsider their tone. “Trump’s team should reflect on the global repercussions of his rhetoric,” Charest said.
Carney has criticized Trump for damaging the historically close relationship between Canada and the U.S. In contrast, Poilievre appears more aligned with the new American direction, according to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a Conservative backer. Poilievre has downplayed Trump’s comments, urging voters to end the Liberal Party’s reign of the last decade, which he terms as a “lost Liberal decade.”
The Canadian election’s outcome could strongly impact U.S.-Canada relations. Trump has threatened to impose hefty tariffs on Canadian products. In response, both Carney and Poilievre stated that they would hasten free trade agreement renegotiations to resolve the economic uncertainty impacting both countries. Carney further intends to diversify Canada’s exports and is reassessing ongoing deals for U.S. F-35 fighter jets amidst the evolving geopolitical climate. His initial visits abroad were to Paris and London, not Washington, illustrating a shift in diplomatic priorities.
Despite these efforts, the U.S. remains Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 80% of its exports. “Even with remarkable diversification efforts, changing our trade dependence by a mere 3-5% over five years would be quite an achievement,” commented former Foreign Minister John Baird. He stressed the necessity of managing trade relations with their primary customer, the U.S., representing 78% of Canadian trade.
In terms of public opinion, a Nanos poll from mid-January showed Liberals substantially trailing the Conservative Party at 20% versus 47%. However, a recent Nanos poll, conducted over a three-day span ending April 26, indicates a four-point national lead for the Liberals, and a six-point lead in Ontario, the country’s most populous province and a key electoral battleground with 122 of 343 parliamentary seats. The margin of error was slightly reduced in the latest poll compared to January’s. This election has unexpectedly become a referendum on Canadian resolve in the face of U.S. political pressures.