In the suburbs surrounding New York City, voters are gearing up to potentially influence which party will dominate the U.S. House for the next two years. A total of eleven congressional districts within a 90-mile radius of Manhattan are predicted to be among the tightest races during the upcoming Election Day.
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow advantage of 6-5 in this contiguous circle, which stretches from Long Island’s suburbs, through parts of Connecticut and New York’s Hudson Valley and Catskills, and extends into northeastern Pennsylvania before returning to New Jersey.
Both Republican and Democratic candidates have opportunities to claim seats in this diverse landscape that features bustling suburbs, tranquil exurb communities, and towns with a mill history. Democrats view this area as crucial in their efforts to regain a House majority, but voters in these districts have exhibited a mixed range of political sentiments in previous elections.
While there’s been a tendency to be receptive toward Republican candidates, these districts also reflect a notable disapproval of former President Trump. Consequently, his presence at the top of the GOP ticket could significantly influence the congressional outcomes, unless opposition to him has faded or local voters choose to separate their ballots.
In the 2020 elections, Trump was only successful in two out of the eleven districts, losing to Joe Biden. However, in the 2022 midterms, seven of these districts elected Republican representatives. In three of those districts that turned red in 2022, as well as in two where Democrats barely triumphed, Trump was defeated by a minimum of 10 points in 2020, as indicated by compiled voting data.
It remains uncertain whether the political factors that aided Republican candidates in the 2022 midterms will persist in the current electoral environment. During that election cycle, many suburban voters expressed concerns regarding an increase in violent crime following the pandemic; yet crime rates have since declined.
Steve Israel, a former Long Island Democratic Congressman, noted that the political climate in 2022 placed significant challenges for Democrats. However, with Trump leading the campaign against Vice President Kamala Harris in a presidential election year, he mentioned that “the message environment is defined by the top of the ticket,” and for these districts it could turn into a referendum on Trump himself.
Examining New York’s 17th Congressional District, which includes areas like Sleepy Hollow and notable residents including Bill and Hillary Clinton, reveals how Republicans managed to outshine Trump during past elections. Despite owning a golf course in the district, Trump lost to Biden by a 10-point margin. In 2022, Republican Mike Lawler edged out Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, who had served for a decade.
Lawler is now facing a formidable challenge from Democrat Mondaire Jones, a former congressman who made history as one of the first openly gay Black members of Congress. Jones lost his previous seat due to redistricting and both he and Lawler are focusing on attracting moderate voters, while positioning each other as being aligned with extreme factions.
Jones has criticized Lawler for supposedly supporting extremist views, emphasizing that Lawler’s alliance could bolster chaos and extremism in Washington. On the contrary, Lawler has dismissed claims that he aims to restrict abortion rights, asserting that Democrats are misleading the voters about this issue, which has generally favored Democratic candidates since the Supreme Court’s controversial 2022 decision.
For constituents like Michelle Patterson, who resides in a Trump-supporting neighborhood, Lawler embodies common sense, and she is skeptical of Jones, whom she labels a radical. In her view, the Democrats are attempting to mislead voters regarding abortion access.
However, this perspective isn’t universal among voters. Jill Ferson, a resident who identifies as a social worker, expressed doubt about Lawler’s assurances regarding abortion, stating her main concerns include preventing Trump’s re-election and protecting both abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights.
In other districts around the city, similar dynamics are at play. For instance, near Long Island, Republican Representative Anthony D’Esposito is fighting to retain his position in a district that Biden won by a significant margin. He accuses his opponent, Laura Gillen, of being ineffective on crime while also criticizing the Democrats on immigration.
Conversely, Gillen retorts that she would advocate for stronger law enforcement and border security if elected. Further northwest, Democrat Josh Riley is trying to defeat Republican Marc Molinaro in a rematch from a close prior contest, with the district stretching from the Hudson River Valley to the Finger Lakes.
In New York, certain districts may contend with issues stemming from the indictment of New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who has pleaded not guilty to bribery and illegal campaign contributions. However, as Adams will not be on the ballot, the impact of this scandal may be limited. Although some Republicans are using this situation to charge that corruption is rampant within the Democratic Party, Trump has expressed sympathy for Adams’ legal struggles, suggesting the prosecution is politically motivated.
Additionally, three highly competitive congressional districts in northeastern Pennsylvania feature incumbents with a strong survival instinct, including Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who is pursuing a fifth term in a district that leaned toward Biden in 2020. He faces Democrat Ashley Ehasz, a former Army pilot, whom he bested by nearly 10 points in their last matchup.
In the predominantly blue regions of New Jersey and Connecticut, at least one competitive race exists in each state. In New Jersey, Trump’s Bedminster golf club is located in a district where Republican Tom Kean Jr. seeks re-election against Democrat Sue Altman, who has held leadership roles within the state’s progressive community.
Meanwhile, in Connecticut, incumbent Democrat Jahana Hayes finds herself up against former Republican state senator George Logan, who narrowly lost to her two years ago in a district that Biden carried by 11 points. During a recent debate, Hayes accused Logan of concealing his support for Trump, to which Logan did not respond directly, refraining from mentioning Trump at all.
