In President Donald Trump’s vision of America’s past, the late 19th century stands out as an era of prosperity. This was a period marked by rapid growth and a transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy. However, alongside this transformation, there was significant poverty, with a few immensely wealthy individuals wielding considerable influence over politicians and expanding their financial domains.
Trump’s fascination with this period is largely due to his strong support for tariffs and his admiration for President William McKinley, who served from 1897 until his assassination in 1901. McKinley, another Republican, is praised by Trump for leveraging tariffs to enrich the nation. Yet experts caution that Trump’s idealized view overlooks the widespread corruption, social unrest, and inequality of the era. They also contest the idea that tariffs played as central a role in economic growth as Trump suggests.
Historian Richard White reflects on the Gilded Age, noting that while a few enjoyed exceptional wealth, many Americans faced poverty and hardship. Political corruption was rampant, fueled by influential monopolists who shaped the economy and American life. Economic growth between 1870 and 1913 was indeed rapid, but White points out it was uneven and heavily reliant on mass immigration and the exploitation of natural resources through westward expansion.
Trump’s approach to tariffs—raising them on imports from nations such as China, and initially Canada and Mexico—is aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturers and attracting foreign companies to the U.S. He plans to apply similar “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from any country doing business with the United States.
The Gilded Age did see significant economic activity, and some refer to it as the second industrial revolution due to advances in manufacturing. However, the period was also marked by antitrust sentiments, political upheaval, and the rise of labor movements, as many did not view the economy as stable or just.
President McKinley’s time in office is a cornerstone of Trump’s tariff strategy, despite the vast differences in the economy today compared to McKinley’s era. McKinley was known for his high tariff advocacy, best exemplified by the Tariff Act of 1890. Although it arguably contributed to inflation and was initially unpopular, leading to political losses for Republicans, McKinley rebounded, eventually becoming President in 1896.
Trump emphasizes periods of budget surpluses from 1866 to 1893 as a result of tariffs, while often overlooking the adverse effects, such as the Panic of 1893, partly triggered by those very economic policies. Interestingly, McKinley’s stance on tariffs evolved, and towards the end of his life, he acknowledged the need for foreign trade, hinting at reducing tariffs to facilitate international markets for U.S. goods.
In one of his final speeches, McKinley spoke of “reciprocity” in trade, an idea that aligns with Trump’s current plans for reciprocal tariffs. However, fate intervened when McKinley was assassinated the day after delivering this vision in Buffalo, New York. As Trump looks to introduce similar trade measures, the historical differences in circumstances present a challenge not encountered by his predecessor.
