PHOENIX — The upcoming Republican primary for the opportunity to challenge Arizona’s Democratic Governor, Katie Hobbs, appears poised to feature a billionaire developer who has received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, as well as a House Freedom Caucus member who has supported Trump’s unfounded claims regarding the 2020 presidential election.
Whoever emerges victorious from the Republican primary set for August 2026 will aim to help the GOP reclaim some of its previously held dominance in Arizona politics. The contest started to take shape last week when real estate attorney and developer Karrin Taylor Robson announced her candidacy, joining U.S. Representative Andy Biggs, who revealed his intentions last month.
Robson’s wealth and extensive business connections set her apart from her previous unsuccessful campaign for the same position in 2022, especially with Trump’s endorsement this time around. Meanwhile, Biggs holds a solid conservative reputation, having been one of the eight House Republicans instrumental in Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as House Speaker in 2023 and maintaining unwavering support for Trump throughout his congressional tenure.
Both candidates aspire to govern a crucial swing state where a revitalization of the GOP could significantly hinder the Democrats’ efforts to regain influence in Congress. Since Trump’s initial election in 2016, few Arizona Republicans have succeeded in uniting the traditional pro-business conservatives with Trump’s populist “Make America Great Again” movement, often resulting in contentious primary battles that leave the GOP nominee weakened heading into the general election.
Robson is attempting to bridge this gap by strengthening her connections with established party figures while heavily leveraging Trump’s endorsement and adopting his populist messaging. She positions herself as firmly opposed to illegal immigration and an advocate against diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. Married to Ed Robson, a prominent billionaire housing developer, she has utilized her substantial financial resources to bolster Republican candidates in light of previous elections where the party faced setbacks against Democrats.
“In a Republican primary, Donald Trump’s endorsement is paramount; it’s the one that really matters,” commented GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “Karrin Taylor Robson has secured that endorsement, which puts her in a strong position.”
Even with the support of former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Robson was unsuccessful in her 2022 campaign for governor, defeated by Kari Lake, who was a strong Trump supporter and promoted baseless claims of election fraud.
Strategist Constantin Querard noted Robson’s key advantages include her financial resources and a lack of legislative voting record, unlike Biggs and Hobbs. He suggested she has the potential to attract a wider range of conservative voters and that it would be challenging for Democrats to portray her as an extreme candidate. While Robson did characterize the 2020 election as “unfair” in 2022, she stopped short of labeling it fraudulent and encouraged her fellow Republicans to focus on future endeavors.
Querard expressed that primary voters are increasingly prioritizing electability, recognizing a general weariness among Republicans in Arizona regarding consistent election losses in races they previously should have won.
Biggs has served his deep-red congressional district since 2016, securing the support of ultra-conservative voters in areas like Queen Creek and Gilbert thanks to his robust small-government ideology. A fierce advocate for Trump in Congress, he is known for challenging GOP leadership, although his earlier role as the president of the Arizona Senate was marked by a more practical approach.
Having chaired the House Freedom Caucus at one point, Biggs has solid connections with the Republican Party’s far-right faction and was scrutinized by the January 6 committee regarding his role in efforts to nullify Trump’s 2020 electoral defeat. Querard stated that Biggs’ unapologetically conservative nature, reinforced by the backing of the Arizona Legislature’s Freedom Caucus, can be beneficial during the primary.
Other prominent Republican figures, including state Senate Majority Leader Janae Shamp and state Representative Teresa Martinez, have publicly endorsed Robson. Meanwhile, Senate President Warren Petersen has indicated that he intends to announce his stance “very soon.”
Hobbs, who narrowly secured victory against Lake in 2022, is now preparing to seek reelection in 2026 and has faced significant challenges from a Republican-controlled Legislature while attempting to pursue her policy agenda, which includes reforming Arizona’s diverse school voucher program.
