ABOARD THE EML SAKALA IN THE BALTIC SEA — As the crew of the Estonian minehunter EML Sakala navigated through the cold, gray waters of the Baltic Sea, their vigilance was heightened while monitoring the activity of surrounding vessels.
Utilizing binoculars and long-zoom cameras, the crew documented ship names and inspected for any missing anchors or trailing cables. During their week at sea, the Sakala managed to approach around 200 ships.
The Sakala is one of three ships from the Estonian navy contributing to increased maritime patrols led by NATO countries in response to damage sustained by the Estlink-2 power cable and communication lines between Finland and Estonia on December 25. Previous to this incident, two undersea data cables were also compromised a month earlier.
Though there has been no conclusive evidence, suspicions quickly fell on Russia regarding these disruptions, which are crucial for providing electricity and connectivity to thousands in Europe. The Russian government has denied any involvement in these incidents.
For Western nations, these events signal a critical moment to demonstrate their resilience amid ongoing concerns over potential sabotage linked to Moscow following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “The main thing is to show force,” noted Lt. Cmdr. Meelis Kants from the Estonian navy while aboard the Sakala.
In the aftermath of the Dec. 25 incident involving the Estlink-2, Finnish authorities detained the Eagle S, an oil tanker suspected of severing the power and four telecommunications cables by dragging its anchor after departing from a Russian port.
The Eagle S, flagged in the Cook Islands, is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” aimed at bypassing sanctions on oil shipments. It was reportedly carrying 35,000 tons of oil when seized, and investigators have noted that its anchor left a drag trail of almost 100 kilometers (62 miles) across the seabed.
Although the damage to the Estlink-2 cable has not yet interrupted service, it did drive up energy prices across the Baltic nations. This cable extends approximately 90 miles (145 kilometers) and is located at depths of up to 90 meters (295 feet) in one of Europe’s busiest shipping lanes. Initial assessments suggest repair costs could reach tens of millions, and full restoration may not occur until late summer, according to Finland’s electricity grid operator.
The region relies on a network of undersea cables and pipelines that link Nordic, Baltic, and central European nations, bolstering trade and energy security while reducing dependency on Russian resources. Since 2023, ten cables in the Baltic Sea have been damaged, which significantly impacts Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Germany, and Lithuania. Several instances have been attributed to vessels accused of careless anchoring practices.
“The sea domain is currently the most contested because it’s also strategically important,” expressed Maj. Gen. Andrus Merilo, Estonian military commander, highlighting the need for Western nations to adopt a more proactive stance to deter potential provocations.
The disruption of the Estlink-2 cable occurred shortly after an incident involving the Yi Peng 3, a Chinese ship that reportedly damaged cables linking Sweden and Lithuania as well as Finland and Germany. Stopped by the Danish navy, the ship remained idle for a month in a Danish shipping lane before resuming its journey in late December, following inspections by representatives from Western nations. No specifics were disclosed regarding the inspection’s findings.
Earlier in October, another Chinese-flagged vessel was alleged to have severed a gas pipeline and fiber-optic connection between Finland and Estonia while dragging its anchor, though that ship went unimpeded.
The shadow fleet of Russia, a particular focus for naval patrols, comprises vessels with unclear ownership, frequently used to transport oil and sidestep sanctions. The Eagle S displayed several infractions related to fire safety and navigation, which have grounded the ship until repairs can be conducted. Additionally, reports indicated that it was previously equipped with surveillance tools typically used for naval operations rather than commercial shipping.
Amid allegations of Russian sabotage and hostile actions across Europe, the Baltic Sea incidents stand out. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson remarked that such occurrences often leave questions regarding their true nature — whether they be accidents or hostile acts, designed to instill fear and create political chaos.
Despite growing European efforts to intervene with vessels suspected of sabotage, officials have refrained from pointing fingers at Moscow without definitive proof. Following the Estlink-2 event, the EU foreign policy sector responded, emphasizing that these “sabotage attempts in the Baltic Sea are part of a broader strategy aimed at damaging digital and energy infrastructure.”
Estonian military leader Merilo urged Western nations to view these actions as an escalation by Russia, advocating for a more robust response based on the evidence they possess, even if it’s not conclusive.
To counter potential threats from hostile entities, European nations need to collaborate and approach threats with the same seriousness they apply to collective security in NATO, according to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
In December, the Joint Expeditionary Force, including 10 European nations along with the U.K., Iceland, and the Netherlands, committed to closer cooperation against the use of shadow vessels by Russia. Maritime authorities have begun screening for proof of insurance from ships suspected of malicious intent, although this initiative did not prevent the Eagle S from operating.
Moving forward, nations plan to utilize AI-assisted technologies to aid in monitoring and assessing risks presented by ships, thereby alerting NATO to potentially suspicious activities. Although the Baltic Sea is now bordered by NATO allies following the entrance of Finland and Sweden, the shallow waters where critical infrastructures lie remain vulnerable to sabotage attempts from all vessels.
During its patrols, the Sakala tracked a vessel journeying from Finland to the U.K. and an Antigua-and-Barbuda-flagged freighter traveling from Vyborg, Russia, to Gdansk, Poland. Should the remaining power cable sustain damage, Estonia would be compelled to depend on local energy production, likely inflating consumer costs and potentially impacting governmental pressures, which could inadvertently favor Moscow.
“The Baltic Sea is something that we need to defend. We need to be here,” emphasized Kants while aboard the patrol ship.
