“Wicked” led the nominations for the 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards, securing five nods, including for best ensemble and individual acknowledgments for Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, and Jonathan Bailey. Due to severe wildfires that affected Los Angeles and Southern California on Tuesday night, the announcement of nominations had to be canceled live and was instead released via press statement, following a partnership with Netflix established by SAG for streaming the awards.
The acclaimed musical adaptation “Wicked” has bolstered its Oscar prospects with these SAG nominations, which are often regarded as a strong indicator of potential Academy Award success. Its recognition, including a nod for stunt ensemble, came on the heels of being honored at the National Board of Review Awards in New York the previous night.
Competing for the top ensemble award alongside “Wicked” are “Anora,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “A Complete Unknown.” The Bob Dylan-inspired film “A Complete Unknown” stood out with four nominations, including recognition for Timothée Chalamet in the best male actor category. Edward Norton and Monica Barbaro each earned supporting nominations for their roles in that film as well.
The best male lead category included anticipated nominees such as Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist,” Daniel Craig in “Queer,” Colman Domingo for “Sing Sing,” Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave,” and Chalamet. Notably, Demi Moore, who recently obtained a victory at the Golden Globes, was nominated for best female actor in a leading role for “The Substance,” joining Erivo, breakout star Karla Sofía Gascón from “Emilia Pérez,” Mikey Madison from “Anora,” and Pamela Anderson for “The Last Showgirl.”
Conversely, some expected names received snubs; for instance, Angelina Jolie for “Maria” and Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl” did not make the cut. Recognized talents like Marianne Jean-Baptiste from “Hard Truths” and Fernanda Torres, who won at the Globes for “I’m Still Here,” also missed out on nominations.
“The Last Showgirl” celebrated further with a surprise nomination for Jamie Lee Curtis in the supporting female actor category. Her competition includes Barbaro, Grande, Danielle Deadwyler from “The Piano Lesson,” and Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Pérez.” Jeremy Strong received a nod for his supporting role as Roy Cohn in the film “The Apprentice,” while his co-star Sebastian Stan was overlooked for both “The Apprentice” and his Golden Globe-winning performance in “A Different Man.” Others contending for best supporting male actor alongside Strong include Bailey, Norton, Yura Borisov for “Anora,” and leading candidate Kieran Culkin in “A Real Pain.”
Historically, the SAG Awards provide significant insights into potential Oscar outcomes, revealing close patterns with Academy selections. The past three best ensemble winners—“Oppenheimer,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “CODA”—all clinched best picture at the Oscars. Furthermore, most SAG acting winners have typically succeeded at the Oscars, with Lily Gladstone being a notable anomaly last year, whose SAG win didn’t translate to an Oscar victory for “Killers of the Flower Moon”.
The SAG Awards nominations serve as a strong indicator for the Oscars, although there may still be exceptions, and some performances missed recognition could still earn an Academy nomination. However, projects like “The Brutalist,” which excelled at the Globes yet failed to secure a SAG ensemble nomination, may face challenges in gaining Oscar traction, as might “Sing Sing,” which managed only one nomination.
In related award news, the Directors Guild honored many of the same films, with Sean Baker for “Anora,” Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Pérez,” Edward Berger for “Conclave,” James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown,” and Corbet for “The Brutalist” receiving nominations. “Wicked” director Jon M. Chu and “Dune: Part Two” director Denis Villeneuve were notably absent from the nominations, and no female filmmakers, including Coralie Fargeat from “The Substance,” were recognized.
This situation complicates the best picture race, as traditional expectations suggest that winners of the Academy’s top honor generally come from among DGA nominees, with very few exceptions in recent history. Although “Wicked” excelled with SAG nominations, its Oscar prospects are still not guaranteed.
Meanwhile, FX’s “Sh?gun,” riding high from recent Emmy and Golden Globe victories, maintained its momentum by earning five nominations, placing it at the forefront alongside best ensemble and individual acknowledgments for Hiroyuki Sanada, Anna Sawai, and Tadanobu Asano. Other noteworthy contenders included “The Bear” (with nominations for Jeremy Allen White, Ayo Edebiri, and Liza Colón-Zayas), “Hacks” (featuring Jean Smart), and “The Diplomat” (with Keri Russell and Allison Janney both highlighted).
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are set to take place on February 23 at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, hosted by Kristen Bell, and will be available for live streaming on Netflix. Additionally, Jane Fonda will receive a Life Achievement Award during the ceremony, acknowledging her significant contributions to the industry.