JERUSALEM — Negotiations between Israel and Hamas seem to be gradually moving towards a potential ceasefire that could conclude the ongoing 15-month conflict in Gaza and facilitate the return of numerous Israelis who are currently hostages.
Amid mounting pressure from outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, both parties are eager to finalize a deal ahead of the inauguration on January 20. However, previous negotiations have faltered due to various disagreements, making the path to peace tenuous.
Recent discussions have reportedly stalled around the identities of hostages to be freed initially, according to sources from Israel, Egypt, and Hamas who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the talks.
Israel seeks guarantees regarding the well-being of the hostages, while Hamas has expressed uncertainty about their status following the months of intense conflict.
Other complications also persist.
This initial phase of an agreement, anticipated to last between six to eight weeks, would entail a ceasefire, the release of Palestinian prisoners, and an increase in humanitarian aid to the heavily affected Gaza Strip, as per accounts from the involved officials. The final stages would encompass the liberation of any remaining hostages, a conclusive halt to the war, and discussions regarding reconstruction and future governance in the region.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking from Seoul on Monday, expressed optimism regarding the negotiations. “If we don’t get it across the finish line in the next two weeks, I’m confident that it will get to completion at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later,” he stated.
The situation surrounding the release of hostages acts as a focal point in the discussions.
During the attack on October 7, 2023, Hamas and its allies killed approximately 1,200 individuals and captured around 250 hostages. A subsequent truce in November saw the release of over 100 hostages, while additional individuals were either rescued or their remains were located over the following year.
Currently, Israel claims that about 100 hostages remain in Gaza, with a significant portion presumed to have been killed in the October 7 assault or lost during captivity.
The first group of hostages expected to be released is likely to consist of women, elderly individuals, and those with health issues, according to officials from Israel, Egypt, and Hamas.
A Hamas official provided a list of 34 names of hostages they claim are earmarked for release. An Egyptian representative verified that this list was a key topic of recent discussions.
However, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that these names originated from a list submitted by Israel several months prior and noted that no acknowledgment or feedback had been received from Hamas regarding the status of the individuals listed.
A different Hamas official revealed a separate list of 14 names alleged to have been removed from consideration by Israel after previously being accepted by Hamas. While Israel has communicated that it considers the 14 individuals deceased, it has not publicly responded to these claims.
An Israeli representative stated that the blockage is due to Hamas not providing crucial information regarding the hostages’ conditions, while another official mentioned that discussions regarding the Mossad intelligence agency’s head traveling to Qatar for negotiations have been delayed.
A Hamas spokesperson noted that the exact status of all hostages remains unclear, and they have indicated that full accountability cannot be provided until a ceasefire is reached.
Since the onset of the conflict, local health authorities report that over 45,800 Palestinians have died in Gaza, with women and children accounting for more than half of the casualties, although the authorities have not provided a breakdown of militants versus civilians among the deceased.
The notion of a phased ceasefire has provoked frustration among families of the hostages, who argue that the Israeli government should strive for a comprehensive agreement that enables the simultaneous release of all captives. They emphasize that time is crucial for ensuring the safe return of those held.
“This morning, I and everyone in Israel woke up to find that the state of Israel has put together a Schindler’s List—34 people who will be able to hug their families again, while 66 others’ fates remain uncertain,” lamented Yotam Cohen, whose brother, an Israeli soldier, was not listed among those set to be released.
Netanyahu has expressed support for a partial agreement that would halt the fighting but has dismissed Hamas’ demands for a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal as a condition to conclude the conflict. He has made it clear that he intends to continue military operations until Hamas’ military capabilities are entirely dismantled.
While Israel has caused considerable damage to Hamas’ infrastructure, the militant group still conducts attacks in Gaza and continues launching rockets toward Israeli territory, suggesting a protracted conflict could continue for an indeterminate period.
The Hostages Forum, which represents many families of hostages, has emphasized the need for a comprehensive agreement to be reached without delay.
“We know that more than half are still alive and require immediate rehabilitation, while those who tragically lost their lives must be returned for proper funerals,” they stated. “We can no longer afford to squander time. A ceasefire agreement for the hostages must be finalized without delay!”
In terms of prisoner releases, the proposed deal anticipates the freeing of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including individuals convicted of serious offenses.
Israel has previously engaged in significant releases of prisoners, with hundreds liberated during the November agreement. However, disputes over the exact number and identities of individuals to be released remain contentious. Hamas is advocating for the inclusion of high-profile prisoners in any agreement, but Israeli representatives have ruled out releasing Marwan Barghouti, who is a significant figure on Hamas’ list.
Netanyahu’s administration is composed of hardline members who oppose such releases and have threatened to withdraw from the government if extensive concessions are made. They reference a 2011 prisoner exchange that included Yahya Sinwar, a former Hamas leader and architect of the October 7 attacks, who was killed by Israeli forces in October.
Additionally, the ongoing conflict has led to the displacement of approximately 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, as per U.N. estimates, with large portions of the northern region of Gaza evacuated of its prewar populace.
During the first phase of the anticipated agreement, Israel is expected to begin withdrawing troops from Palestinian areas and facilitate the return of some displaced residents. However, the specifics regarding the extent of these withdrawals and the number of individuals authorized to return still depend on ongoing negotiations.
