TEL AVIV, Israel — Following Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to celebrate, expressing his excitement by declaring it “history’s greatest comeback.” His enthusiasm seems warranted when considering Trump’s strong support for Israel during his previous term and his selection of pro-Israel figures for key positions in his administration.
However, a series of significant developments since Trump’s departure from office in early 2021 may pose challenges to what initially appears to be a harmonious alliance. Amidst ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the ambitious agenda of Netanyahu’s far-right government, the prime minister’s warm relationship with Trump may not be as straightforward as it seems.
Mazal Mualem, an Israeli journalist and author of a biography on Netanyahu, remarked, “For Bibi, this is his dream. He wanted this. For Bibi, it’s too good to be true,” alluding to Netanyahu’s ambitions. As he approaches a corruption trial and deals with an international arrest warrant linked to the war in Gaza, Trump’s support will undoubtedly hold greater significance for him.
During his first term, Trump implemented policies that largely benefitted Netanyahu’s agenda. He broke from traditional U.S. stances by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the U.S. Embassy there, despite objections from the Palestinians. Trump validated Israel’s claims to the Golan Heights and overlooked the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, proposing a peace plan that would keep numerous settlements intact. The Palestinians view the entirety of the West Bank, seized in the 1967 conflict, as central to a future state, with East Jerusalem designated as its capital, while international opinion regards most settlements as illegal.
At Netanyahu’s request, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement established during the Obama administration, escalating sanctions and ordering the assassination of a prominent Iranian general. Additionally, in the latter days of his presidency, Trump facilitated a series of diplomatic agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, upending the belief that such normalization could only occur alongside progress on the Palestinian front—an achievement celebrated by Netanyahu.
In this new political climate, Netanyahu is likely to prioritize strong measures against Iran and may hope for advanced weaponry from the U.S. to target Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. He might also pursue further normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, albeit with minimal concessions to the Palestinians, and will likely expect Trump to allow Israel to conduct operations in Gaza without pressure for troop withdrawal, even under a ceasefire agreement.
Following Trump’s reelection, Netanyahu has expressed optimism about restoring favorable relations after a difficult tenure under President Biden. Aviv Bushinsky, a former advisor to Netanyahu, stated, “The belief for now is that Trump will deliver,” highlighting Netanyahu’s recent appointment of a hardline ambassador to Washington as a sign of confidence in future collaborations under Trump.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu could benefit significantly from this political shift, particularly in light of his declining popularity post the October 7 Hamas attacks. Despite military victories against Hamas, including significant leadership casualties, polls indicate that Netanyahu’s coalition may not secure the majority needed if elections were held soon. Furthermore, his upcoming testimony in a corruption trial, coupled with the International Criminal Court warrant complicating his international travel, adds to the mounting pressures. Some of his aides are embroiled in scandals concerning sensitive wartime documents, further straining his position.
However, the nature of the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump remains uncertain. Netanyahu drew Trump’s ire by congratulating Joe Biden on his 2020 election victory, and although they met in Florida earlier this year, it is unclear whether any lingering animosity could affect their dynamic if Trump reclaims office.
Trump’s return comes at a time when the Middle East is still experiencing turmoil, particularly in Gaza, following the intense conflict triggered by the Hamas attacks. While a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah seems stable, the situation in Gaza remains fluid, and Trump’s expectation that Israel must conclude its operations there complicates matters. He has demanded the release of hostages held in Gaza prior to his inauguration, hinting at severe repercussions if this condition is not met while leaving the specifics ambiguous.
Netanyahu’s vision for Gaza post-conflict, which includes a prolonged military presence, could challenge Trump’s expectations. Moreover, Trump has historically entertained the idea of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia—an ambitious prospect that would necessitate compromises concerning Palestinian statehood, a notion that Netanyahu and his coalition likely oppose. Saudi Arabia has firmly stated that it will not normalize relations without a clear avenue for Palestinian independence, a principle that could trigger a crisis for Netanyahu’s government.
As some commentators suggest, while Netanyahu believes he can rally Trump to his causes, Trump’s recent statements are not entirely clear-cut. Eytan Gilboa, a scholar on U.S.-Israel relations at Bar-Ilan University, pointed out that although Netanyahu expects Trump to renew an aggressive approach to Iran, there’s potential for negotiations in the pursuit of a peacemaker legacy.
Consequently, any inclination on Trump’s part could force Netanyahu to navigate difficult choices, potentially setting the stage for conflicts with key allies critical for his political future. As noted by Gilboa, “Netanyahu has described Trump as Israel’s greatest friend in the White House. And if Trump asks something of him, he won’t be able to say no,” foreshadowing potential complications ahead.
