Human activity has been implicated in the recent devastating flooding that struck Central Europe, as outlined in a new flash study. The heavy rains that resulted in severe flooding and claimed the lives of 24 individuals were found to be significantly influenced by human-caused climate change. The study indicated that the likelihood of such intense rainfall events has doubled due to global warming attributed to the combustion of fossil fuels.
The four-day rainfall event, brought on by Storm Boris in mid-September, was described as the heaviest ever recorded in Central Europe. Countries such as Romania, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany experienced significant damage, with bridges destroyed, cars submerged, and towns left without power. World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists conducting rapid climate studies, reported that climate change also intensified the rainfall by 7% to 20%.
According to Joyce Kimutai, the lead author of the study and a climate researcher at Imperial College, London, the catastrophic floods in Central Europe serve as a stark reminder of the adverse effects of fossil fuel-driven warming. The scientists involved in the study utilized climate models to compare the current climate conditions with those of the preindustrial era, indicating the increased likelihood and intensity of such extreme rainfall events in today’s warmer world.
The study focused on the impacts felt in various countries that bore the brunt of the severe weather, with a particular emphasis on the Polish-Czech border region and Austria. While the death toll from the recent flooding was lower compared to previous catastrophic events, the infrastructure damages were considerable. Emergency management systems were overwhelmed, necessitating billions of euros for repairs.
European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen of the European Union, have pledged financial aid to assist the affected countries in rebuilding damaged infrastructure and housing. The World Weather Attribution study also issued a warning that with further warming, the likelihood of such ferocious storms would increase by 50%, with a corresponding rise in intensity.
The heavy rainfall that battered Central Europe was associated with a meteorological phenomenon known as a “Vb depression,” which occurs when cold air from the north meets warm air from the south over the Alps. Although the study found no significant change in the frequency of such depressions since the 1950s, it pointed to the exacerbating impact of climate change.
Established in 2015, the World Weather Attribution group aims to expedite the assessment of climate change’s involvement in extreme weather events. By employing real-world weather data and computer modeling, scientists are able to determine the influence of global warming on the likelihood and intensity of such events.
