Donald Trump is losing steam in the final days of the Election. His campaign got off track, he is under big pressure being portrayed by Harris and the Democrats as potential danger to the country and wanna-be-dictator – and this is mirrored in recent polls.
The English paper DailyMail is running an interesting prognosis model for the election – based on all polls, on bettings and on professional prognosis. This prognosis trend is regarded by most insiders as very reliable.
Daily Mail’s polling partners J.L. Partners show Harris has the momentum going into sprint before November 5, with the race trending into tossup territory.
Momentum shifts to Harris in independent election model:
Trump loses seven points in five days
The number crunchers at J.L. Partners have delivered their latest update for the independent election model of the Daily Mail. And it is more bad news for Donald Trump.
The model is trending away from LEAN Trump into TOSSUP territory. Trump remains the favorite, and he wins in 62.2 percent of all simulations. But that is a drop of 2.5 points since Friday and he has now lost seven points in five days, reflecting a string of polls favorable to Kamala Harris.
All the swing states have seen movement against Trump.
Arizona -Trump’s win probability has decreased by 2 points. It remains a LIKELY TRUMP state.
Georgia – Trump’s win probability dropped by 2.8 points. It remains a LIKELY TRUMP state although is on the cusp of being classified down to LEAN TRUMP.
Michigan – Trump’s win probability dropped by 2.5 points. It remains a TOSSUP TRUMP but is less than 1 point from flipping back to Harris.
Nevada – Trump’s win probability decreased by 2.3 points, undoing yesterday’s increase. The state remains LEAN TRUMP.
North Carolina – a two-point movement against Trump. The state remains a LIKELY TRUMP state.
Pennsylvania – a 1.4-point movement against Trump. The state remains LEAN TRUMP state.
Wisconsin – a two-point movement against Trump. The state remains a TOSSUP TRUMP state
Callum Hunter, J.L. Partners’ data scientist, writes in his latest briefing note:
It is now clear that the momentum of recent polling is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s win probability has dropped 7 points in five days and if more polling is released that shows similar patterns from recent days then the race will flip from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before election day.
A slew of state polling (including non-battleground states) is responsible for that shift, he continues.
The key thing is to note where this momentum is concentrated. The biggest shifts over the past week have been in the Rust Belt states (MI +8.4% Harris, PA +7.2% Harris and WI +6.5% Harris) – states that are key for Harris to win if she wants to win the Electoral College. Whether this momentum has come too late in the day is hard to say – it is likely that Michigan will swap back to Harris in the coming days and Wisconsin will continue to narrow.
The last two days – Monday and Sunday – will be crucial for Trump. Is he losing the deciding votes from independents, women and Latino Voters? Or can he bring his razor-thin advantage over the finish line?
