CARACAS, Venezuela — President Nicolás Maduro is currently facing an unprecedented wave of international criticism, marking the most significant backlash during his 12 years in office.
The self-proclaimed socialist is largely believed to have lost the previous year’s election by a considerable margin, which resulted in accusations from the United States and other nations that the election was manipulated. This claimed electoral theft has compelled Maduro to rely heavily on security forces to suppress dissent and detain his adversaries.
Despite the turbulence, he is set to be sworn in for a third term on Friday while the opposition leader, who contends that he won, is determined to return from exile by the time of the inauguration.
Maduro has seemingly flourished amidst conflict since he succeeded Hugo Chávez, who initiated the Bolivarian revolution, in 2012. His tenure has been marked by numerous challenges, including a drone attack, widespread protests related to the country’s economic downfall, and an ongoing international criminal inquiry regarding human rights violations, alongside a $15 million U.S. bounty for alleged drug trafficking activities.
The narrative of Latin American strongmen enduring election disputes only to face swift removal is a familiar one. Historical parallels include Chile’s Augusto Pinochet, who attempted to manipulate a referendum vote in 1988, and Peru’s Alberto Fujimori, who overstepped constitutional bounds for a third term in 2000.
With the impending presidency ahead, Maduro confronts one of his most significant trials yet, challenging the future of Venezuela’s already weakened democratic structure.
A story of choices and identity emerges in Maduro’s life, as depicted in a biopic produced for last year’s political campaign. The film illustrates his upbringing in a lower-class neighborhood of Caracas, where he had to choose between his dual passions for baseball and political activism. “Make a decision,” a coach advises the young Maduro in the film. “It’s either baseball or politics.”
His real-life journey veered toward politics after he embraced leftist ideals. In 1986, Maduro spent a year in Cuba for ideological training, marking his first formal education after high school. He returned to Venezuela and took up work as a bus driver and union organizer. His political alignment with Chávez solidified following the latter’s failed coup against an unpopular government in 1992, coinciding with his first meeting with Cilia Flores, who would become his lifelong partner.
When Chávez became president in 1998 after his release from prison, Maduro, then a young politician, supported efforts to redistribute Venezuela’s oil wealth. His international recognition grew significantly in 2006 when Chávez appointed him as foreign minister, a role that showcased his talent for defusing tensions with the United States during a political crisis.
Maduro’s tenure began in earnest following Chávez’s death in 2013, but he was soon engulfed in turmoil as the nation experienced an economic collapse, with the national economy plummeting 71% from 2012 to 2020 and inflation spiraling to over 130,000%. Faced with internal threats and a populace increasingly angry at the deteriorating quality of life, hardline opponents commenced protests demanding his resignation less than a year after he assumed the presidency.
While leaning on the military to quash the protests, Maduro faced further backlash as widespread shortages continued to plague the populace, igniting violent demonstrations three years later that claimed more than 100 lives. By 2018, the International Criminal Court began investigating possible crimes against humanity amid ongoing allegations of government repression.
The 2018 presidential race saw the opposition boycott elections after several of its leaders were barred from participating. Countries worldwide, led by the U.S., denounced Maduro’s re-election as illegitimate, recognizing Juan Guaidó as the nation’s rightful leader, which led to increased unrest fueled by U.S. sanctions targeting the oil sector.
Each crisis seemed to paradoxically strengthen Maduro, who emerged from the chaos with renewed fervor. By 2022, he took on the nickname “Super Bigote,” a nod to his thick mustache and a badge of honor among supporters who admired his resilience amidst escalating challenges.
As he approaches the 2024 elections, Maduro remains steadfast with a belief that rising popularity for his unheralded challenger, Edmundo González, is a facade orchestrated by his enemies and the United States to destabilize his regime.
Following the election, Maduro has enlisted security forces to detain opponents, with González alleging that his son-in-law was abducted by armed individuals, and a prominent lawyer specializing in free speech was similarly taken. The government has yet to address these incidents publicly.
Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, suggested that such acts of repression reveal vulnerabilities within Maduro’s administration that could come back to haunt him. He noted the dynamics of armed forces in maintaining control and referenced the recent downfall of Syria’s Bashar Assad as a cautionary tale for Maduro: “These regimes are very unpredictable and can fall at any moment even if they seem strong. If it collapses, it will be an internal breakdown.”
