DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Over the past five years, Dubai’s skyline has exploded with growth, but many residents are beginning to feel the adverse effects of rapid development. The city has experienced unprecedented real estate transactions, driven by an influx of new inhabitants and booming profits for its state-owned airline, Emirates. However, this transformation is placing immense pressure on the local population.
Commuters are facing worsening traffic congestion, while housing prices continue to soar, despite the announcement of new real estate developments nearly every day. Emirati citizens and the significant foreign workforce, which is crucial to Dubai’s economy, are finding it increasingly challenging to cope, leading to rare expressions of discontent. In a revealing report from a global data firm, Hasnain Malik cautions, “Dubai is on steroids, but affordability risks are on the rise.”
The city’s ambitious plans envision a population growth to 5.8 million by 2040, which would mean adding over half its current population within the next 15 years. Since 1980, Dubai’s population has surged from about 255,000 to 3.8 million. The real estate market ignited Dubai’s expansion in 2002 when it allowed foreigners to buy property. After some turbulent periods during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the brief pandemic lockdowns, prices have now skyrocketed to record levels. According to Property Monitor, average prices per square foot have reached new highs, and rental costs spiked by as much as 20% in key areas last year, with further increases on the horizon, prompting some residents to relocate to more distant communities.
Traffic woes have long been an issue, with many workers opting to reside in Sharjah, which is located about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of Downtown Dubai. Approximately 1 million commuters traverse the heavily congested 12-lane Sheikh Zayed Road and other major highways daily. Studies indicate that around 80% of employees prefer driving alone to work, and the situation has become more severe with the influx of newcomers. While the global vehicle registration rate has grown by around 4% in the past two years, Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority has recorded a substantial 10% increase, necessitating longer license plates to accommodate the surge.
In light of increasing vehicular traffic, officials have implemented plans for more flyovers and road improvements; however, the influx of vehicles continues unabated. “Dubai remains an attractive destination, drawing more newcomers,” noted Thomas Edelmann, managing director of RoadSafetyUAE. He believes that attracting residents to Dubai is more manageable than developing new roads and intersections.
The growing congestion has prompted some Emirati citizens, including prominent lawyer Habib Al Mulla, to publicly voice their concerns. He recently addressed the issue on social media and highlighted the need for immediate and long-term solutions to tackle traffic problems. Although discreet in tone, Al Mulla’s comments reflected a rare foray into public criticism, a topic often avoided in the UAE due to strict social norms. He warned about the consequences of income inequality and the importance of addressing the affordability crisis that could alienate lower-income residents.
There are also demographic concerns; as the percentage of Emiratis diminishes among the population. Although exact figures are not disclosed, estimates suggest that Emiratis make up only about 10% of the total population, which exceeds 9 million. In response to these trends, recent sermons have emphasized the importance of increasing the Emirati birth rate, framing it as both a religious duty and a national responsibility.
To alleviate the strain on infrastructure, the government has explored a variety of both practical and innovative solutions. Recently, officials have encouraged businesses to adopt flexible work arrangements, which could potentially reduce morning traffic peaks by as much as 30%. The toll system, Salik, is set to implement new surge pricing, while Dubai’s Metro network is slated for an extensive nearly $5 billion expansion that will extend beyond its current routes.
Furthermore, Dubai has ambitious plans for aerial transportation; the first “vertiport” is being established at the Dubai International Airport to facilitate a flying taxi service as early as next year. The city also aims to complete 3,300 kilometers (2,050 miles) of new pedestrian walkways, albeit with the challenge of extreme weather conditions in the summer months.
Sheikh Mohammed, the ruler of Dubai, expressed optimism that in the near future, residents will have options to navigate the city through walking, cycling, the metro, water taxis, and flying taxis, which will enhance mobility. Yet, despite these initiatives, the influx of new residents and vehicles continues, leading to ever-worsening traffic congestion.
