Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly issued threats involving their nuclear capabilities towards the West. Following the commencement of the conflict, Putin warned that any attempts to hinder Russia would result in immediate and unprecedented consequences. Despite ongoing fighting over the past 2 1/2 years, the threats from the Kremlin have remained just that – threats.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine, formally known as the “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence,” was signed by Putin in 2020. It outlines the circumstances under which Russia may consider using its nuclear arsenal, the largest in the world. The doctrine emphasizes that nuclear weapons are viewed as a deterrent measure, only to be used as a last resort in response to threats against Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
The doctrine specifies several scenarios that could trigger the use of nuclear weapons, including in response to attacks on Russian territory or its allies with weapons of mass destruction, or if conventional weapon attacks pose a threat to the state’s existence. While some Russian officials argue that recent Ukrainian attacks on sensitive Russian targets, such as air bases hosting nuclear-capable bombers and early warning radars, could justify the use of nuclear weapons, no such response has been seen thus far.
Amid evolving global events, discussions are underway in Russia about potentially amending the nuclear doctrine to address perceived weaknesses and sharpen its stance. Some voices in Moscow advocate for lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use in the face of escalating tensions with the West. Others warn of the dangers of further confrontation, urging caution and revisions to prevent a catastrophic nuclear conflict.
Putin has hinted at the possibility of revising the doctrine in response to changing threats, particularly concerning discussions in the West regarding the deployment of low-yield nuclear weapons. While affirming that there are currently no immediate threats warranting nuclear action, he acknowledged the need for vigilance in adapting Russia’s nuclear policy to emerging challenges in the global security landscape.
