Forty years ago, one of the most significant moments in NBA history unfolded as Commissioner David Stern kicked off the inaugural draft lottery. Fans looked on in anticipation as the Golden State Warriors’ logo was revealed from an envelope, securing them the seventh pick in the draft. Broadcaster Pat O’Brien, covering the event for CBS, quipped that they became the first team displeased with the lottery system. Now, as this year’s draft lottery looms, speculation grows on which team will face similar disappointment — Utah, Washington, or Charlotte, who each have a top 14% likelihood of securing the first pick.
Recently, Will Dawkins, the general manager for the Wizards, spoke candidly on Monumental Sports Network about the impending lottery, acknowledging the randomness involved. The lottery’s outcome hinges on the draw of table tennis balls that determine the order of the top selections. The process has come a long way from the 1985 method where David Stern handpicked envelopes, a procedure that fueled conspiracy theories when Ewing famously went to the Knicks. That year, Golden State ended up with the seventh pick despite having the poorest record in the league.
As the anticipated draft approaches, Duke’s standout Cooper Flagg is projected as a likely first pick, though nothing is set in stone. The lottery has become a pivotal event for NBA franchises that have struggled, as it offers a chance at a fresh start. All teams have had their ups and downs with the lottery system, and The Associated Press has delved into each franchise’s experiences, revealing a range of outcomes.
Cleveland and Orlando have both triumphed in the lottery four times, while the Clippers, 76ers, and Spurs have each enjoyed three top picks. However, some teams, such as the Grizzlies, Heat, Jazz, Lakers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, and Thunder, have yet to win the lottery. Dallas, Denver, and Memphis, in particular, have experienced a prolonged streak of bad luck, with Minnesota finally breaking through with top picks in 2015 and 2020.
Orlando’s 1993 lottery success remains a standout, triumphing with a mere 1.5% chance, besting Chicago in 2008 and Cleveland in 2014, who each won with a 1.7% probability. Currently, Utah, Washington, and Charlotte are looking at the best odds for this year’s top pick, followed by teams like New Orleans (12.5%), Philadelphia (10.5%), and others with descending probabilities. Gone are the days when the lottery drew lots just to determine who picks first, evolving into a weighted system that provides some advantage based on prior performance.
The saga of the Golden State Warriors falling to the seventh pick in 1985 remains an anomaly, as regulations now prevent such significant drops. Whether the lottery will bestow favor on the less fortunate or extend the drought for some, it continually stands as a symbol of hope and contention in the NBA.