In Kyiv, Ukraine’s strategic landscape has shifted as discussions regarding a ceasefire with Russia intensify. Ukraine’s military, which previously stunned Russian forces with a significant territorial gain, now faces challenges in maintaining control over these regions. In an unexpected offensive in August, the Ukrainian army crossed into Russian territory, seizing around 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles). This move aimed not only to boost morale but also to serve as a potential bargaining asset in possible peace talks. However, sustained pressure from Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean troops, has resulted in Ukraine retaining only about 30% of the initially seized land, suffering a setback with a near-defeat in the city of Sudzha.
Ukrainian forces are rapidly constructing defensive lines near the border, striving to prevent Sudzha from becoming a launchpad for further Russian advances into northeastern Ukraine. Politically, the retreat from significant regions of Russia’s Kursk territory could pose a considerable challenge for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his military advisory team. The campaign in Kursk aimed to shift Russian focus and allow Ukraine to reclaim at least some of the territory lost since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, the strategy has been clouded by internal doubts, with questions surrounding the wisdom of deploying resources to defend Kursk instead of reinforcing Ukraine’s defenses.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed tentative agreement with a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, although details remain under negotiation. This development coincides with the visit of President Donald Trump’s envoy to Moscow.
The occupation of Sudzha marks a culmination of the challenges faced in Kursk, where ongoing battles persist as Ukrainian forces attempt to extract themselves to the relative safety of the Sumy region. Concerns persist among Ukrainian soldiers and commanders about Russian air superiority, which threatens their logistic pathways critical for sustaining troops still present in Kursk. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has reclaimed approximately 70% of the region Ukraine captured in early August. This situation forces Ukrainian soldiers into arduous treks spanning dozens of kilometers to re-enter Ukrainian territory, with some expressing frustration over delays in the decision to withdraw.
Internally within the Ukrainian military, opinions diverge on the wisdom of the Kursk incursion. While some commanders argue the operation helped hinder further Russian incursions, others criticize the loss of invaluable human and material resources. Following the fall of Sudzha, the largest settlement held in Kursk, a sense of pessimism lingers among Ukrainian troops about maintaining their grip on the remaining Russian territory.
The introduction of North Korean soldiers into the conflict marked a turning point for Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Ukrainian personnel attest to the surprising effectiveness of these troops, noting their physical capabilities and high stamina. Compounding these challenges were shortages in manpower, weapons, and ammunition, rendering Ukrainian forces severely outnumbered.
The gradual erosion of Ukrainian defenses over the past months has been marked by relentless Russian air assaults, forcing Ukrainian troops to labor under heavy loads of essential supplies over significant distances. The recent halt in U.S. intelligence sharing has potentially impacted the dynamics in Kursk, coinciding with Russia’s tactical gains. A surprise attack by Russian special forces and unsettling moments of Ukrainian retreats have underscored the volatile nature of the conflict.
Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi recently ordered a strategic withdrawal to preserve the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, although many believe this decision was overdue. Some Ukrainian soldiers have chosen to retreat independently, citing unsustainable conditions and continuous missile fire. As Russian forces encircle potential escape routes, Ukrainian units face daunting odds in their attempts to regroup.
Despite adversity, Ukraine holds a narrow strip of territory in Kursk near the Sumy border. Soldiers have redirected efforts towards fortification, aiming to stifle any Russian advances into Ukrainian soil. Trenches are swiftly constructed, though effectiveness hinges on available military strength.
