LISBON, Portugal — On Tuesday, Portugal’s minority government faced a pivotal moment as it lost a crucial vote of confidence in parliament. This defeat forced the resignation of the government and set the stage for the country’s third general election in as many years. The fallout represents a significant period of political instability for Portugal, not seen since it transitioned to a democracy over 50 years ago following the Carnation Revolution of 1974, which ended decades of dictatorial rule.
For years, Portugal has been governed by a string of minority administrations. These governments have struggled to form stable coalitions that would allow them to serve out their full four-year terms as outlined in the nation’s constitution. As opposition parties collaborated to bring down the regime repeatedly, a new election, likely taking place in May, will thrust the nation of 10.6 million into further political uncertainty. This is occurring just as Portugal embarks on significant investments amounting to over 22 billion euros ($24 billion) from European Union development funds. Additionally, Europe is currently grappling with immediate challenges that impact its security and economic stability.
The prospect of returning to the polls has sparked discontent among voters, potentially benefiting the radical-right populist party Chega (translated as “Enough”). This party has capitalized on public dissatisfaction with traditional political parties and was able to secure the third position in elections held last year. Like many parts of Europe, Portugal has seen a surge in populism, which presents further complications in forming stable governments.
The government had actually requested the confidence vote, stating that it was necessary to dissipate “uncertainty” surrounding its future amidst ongoing political tensions. These tensions had largely centered around Social Democrat Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, diverting attention away from government policies. During over three hours of intense debate, interspersed with dramatic moments and last-ditch proposals to avert its fall, the government called for an hour-long recess as lawmakers engaged in private discussions. In a last effort, the government approached the Socialists with a proposal.
Upon the announcement of the vote results, a hush enveloped the chamber. Prime Minister Montenegro expressed resignation to the outcome, stating to reporters, “Things are how they are. We gave our all,” as he exited the Portuguese National Assembly. In contrast, Pedro Nuno Santos, leader of the Socialist Party—the main opposition—criticized the government for what he termed “shameful” conduct, accusing it of resorting to “maneuvers, games, tricks” in an attempt to stay in power.
A significant area of contention centered on potential conflicts of interest involving Montenegro’s family law firm. The Prime Minister, who has plans to seek reelection, has refuted any allegations of impropriety, maintaining that he transferred oversight of the firm to his wife and children upon his ascent to Social Democratic leadership in 2022. Nonetheless, recent revelations indicated that the firm received regular payments from a company with a substantial government-issued gambling license, among other revenue streams.
While the exact vote tally remains undisclosed, Jose Pedro Aguiar-Branco, the speaker of parliament, confirmed the government’s defeat. The outgoing government, composed of a coalition spearheaded by the Social Democratic Party and in power for just under a year, controlled only 80 of the 230 legislative seats. A decisive majority of opposition representatives pledged to oppose the government. Both the center-left Socialists and Chega, who collectively hold 128 seats, voted against the ruling coalition.
In response, opposition parties have demanded more detail from Montenegro, with the Socialist Party in particular calling for a parliamentary inquiry that could entangle the government for an extended period. Despite the turmoil, the Social Democrats are hopeful that Portugal’s economic growth rate of 1.9% last year, which outpaces the European Union average of 0.8%, and an unemployment rate of 6.4%, aligning with the EU average, may help maintain public support.
Originally, the next general election in Portugal was set to occur in January 2028, but the current circumstances have necessitated an earlier return to the voting booth.
