Climate change is already creating various challenges on Earth, and according to a recent study, it’s set to complicate conditions in space as well. Researchers at MIT have found that the ongoing warming, driven by the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, could significantly reduce the space available for satellites in low Earth orbit by up to 82% by the century’s end. This reduction depends on the volume of carbon emissions released into the atmosphere. The shrinking of available space is attributed to an increase in space debris due to climate change impairing the natural mechanisms for clearing it up.
The greenhouse effect, which raises temperatures near the Earth’s surface, concurrently cools down the higher parts of the atmosphere where space begins, thus affecting the zone through which satellites orbit. This cooling results in the upper atmosphere becoming less dense, effectively reducing the drag exerted on human-made debris and satellites. Normally, this atmospheric drag pulls debris toward Earth, where it disintegrates. However, a cooler and less dense upper atmosphere means a diminished self-cleansing ability for space, leading to congestion in the orbital paths, as highlighted in a study appearing in the journal Nature Sustainability.
Study lead author Will Parker, an astrodynamics expert at MIT, emphasized the critical role of the atmosphere in managing space debris, saying, “We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris. There’s no other way to remove debris.” The situation in orbit involves millions of debris pieces as small as three millimeters — equivalent to the width of two stacked pennies — that can cause impacts comparable to a bullet strike. Additionally, tens of thousands of plum-sized debris pieces carry destructive potential akin to a crashing bus, according to the Aerospace Corporation’s data on orbital leftovers.
Currently, there are approximately 11,905 satellites orbiting Earth, with 7,356 situated in low orbit, as reported by the Orbiting Now tracking website. These satellites provide essential services, including communication, navigation, weather forecasting, and monitoring of environmental and national security concerns.
Historically, the notion that space is vast and limitless led to an underestimation of the need for responsible environmental stewardship. Parker notes, however, that awareness has shifted significantly in light of incidents like the 2009 crash involving two satellites, which generated thousands of debris pieces. Measured decreases in atmospheric drag further underscore the critical impact of climate change on the space environment.
Ingrid Cnossen, a space weather scientist affiliated with the British Antarctic Survey, who did not participate in the study, remarked that the study’s findings are wholly logical. She stressed the necessity of recognizing the influence of climate change on orbital conditions to implement suitable measures for preserving space sustainability long-term.
