TORONTO — As Canada braces for the impact of U.S. trade tensions, particularly with President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the country is on the verge of selecting a pragmatic former central banker to lead. Mark Carney, at 59, is poised to become the Canadian prime minister, succeeding Justin Trudeau, as the Liberal Party of Canada prepares for a leadership election this Sunday.
The opposition Conservatives have aimed to shift focus onto Trudeau, who has seen a drop in approval due to escalating food and housing costs alongside a rise in immigration. Though Trudeau announced his resignation earlier this year, he maintains his role as prime minister until a new leader emerges. While electoral regulations require a vote by October, it’s widely anticipated that the election may occur sooner.
Trump’s aggressive trade strategies and his inflammatory suggestions about annexing Canada have sparked outrage among Canadians, leading to the national anthem being booed during NHL and NBA games. Consequently, many Canadians have opted to cancel planned trips to the U.S. and are increasingly shunning American products.
This surge in Canadian nationalism has significantly boosted the Liberal Party’s prospects as impending parliamentary elections approach, with opinion polls indicating rising support. Unlike previous decades of bilateral harmony, the current leadership choice is heavily focused on selecting someone adept at navigating relations with the United States.
So, who is Mark Carney? In his tenure as the head of Canada’s central bank, as well as being the first non-citizen to lead the Bank of England since 1694, Carney has successfully managed significant economic turbulence. His leadership was lauded in the UK when Canada emerged from the 2008 financial crisis more robustly than many other nations.
Carney’s strategy included dramatic cuts to interest rates, maintaining borrowing incentives by promising historically low rates, and ensuring financial fluidity by collaborating with bankers. His clarity in communicating these policies earned public and expert support. This proactive approach, later mirrored by the U.S. Federal Reserve, displayed his influence.
Since announcing his candidacy in January, Carney has gained widespread endorsement from Cabinet members and Parliamentarians alike. Standing against him in the Liberal leadership race is Chrystia Freeland, a former Deputy Prime Minister who resigned following a clash with Trudeau. Freeland’s exit, coupled with close ties to the declining popularity of Trudeau, contrasts with Carney’s fresh approach.
University of Toronto professor emeritus Nelson Wiseman highlights three factors playing in Carney’s favor: Freeland’s association with Trudeau, Carney’s intensive campaign to rally Liberal MP support, and Trump’s trade policy aggravations. Wiseman asserts that Liberal parliamentarians see Carney as a more viable leader, crucial for maintaining their electoral positions.
As the Liberal Party members gear up to elect their new leader through a secret ballot involving approximately 140,000 members, the next prime minister is expected to initiate an election soon after. This could be driven by either the new leader’s call or potentially forced by opposition’s no-confidence vote.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, describes Carney’s composed and impressive background as comforting to Canadians amid Trump’s economic and sovereignty challenges. Béland contrasts this to Conservative Pierre Poilievre, described as a confrontational career politician drawing parallels to Trump’s populist rhetoric.
Poilievre, a fervent advocate for a “Canada first” agenda, challenges mainstream media and proposes defunding Canada’s public broadcaster while vowing tax reductions. Béland emphasizes that this approach might resonate with Poilievre’s base but finds less favor among broader Canadian audiences, further exacerbated by U.S. presidential actions.
