HONG KONG — In the initial months of the year, China’s exports witnessed a modest increase of 2.3% compared to the previous year, while imports fell by over 8%. This underwhelming start to 2025 is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and other economic policies.
Industry experts had projected a 5% year-on-year rise in exports, alongside a slight increase in imports. As a result of these conditions, China’s overall trade surplus expanded to $170.52 billion during January and February.
The custom of aggregating trade data for these two months is adopted by China’s customs agency to sidestep distortions created by the week-long Lunar New Year celebrations.
“Export growth slowed in the opening months of 2025, with the anticipated boost from pre-tariff demand less significant than expected,” stated Julian Evans-Pritchard from Capital Economics. He added that this slowdown occurred prior to any major impact from the tariffs, predicting that a notable decline in U.S. shipments would likely follow.
The deceleration in imports indicates a partial reversal of demand spurred by government stimulus in the preceding year, according to Evans-Pritchard.
Recently, the U.S. implemented the second of its two scheduled 10% tariff increases on Chinese imports, likely to further affect Chinese exports in the months ahead. As a result, buyers, along with Chinese suppliers, seemed to have hastened to circumvent these looming tariff hikes.
Despite opposing the tariff escalations, Chinese authorities maintain confidence in the economy’s fortitude and the potential for trade relationships with other nations to mitigate any potential fall in exports to the U.S. They have also signaled a willingness for dialogue on an equitable basis.
China’s economic growth target remained at 5% last year, with exports playing a pivotal role in achieving this goal. The target remains the same for 2025, notwithstanding the uncertain trade climate.
In January and February, exports to the U.S. rose by 2.3% year-on-year, while those to the European Union and Japan experienced slight growths of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. However, exports to Russia dropped significantly by 10.9%.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to be China’s largest trading partner, with exports increasing by 5.7% in comparison to the previous year.
Lynn Song of ING Economics has noted that while it is premature to draw definitive conclusions from a few months of data, there is speculation surrounding future export trends following the impact of tariffs on U.S. trade. “With tariffs taking effect in the early part of the year, the subsequent impacts will likely emerge gradually in the ensuing months,” she commented.
