The conflict between Israel and Hamas has been on a tentative pause due to a ceasefire agreement, which is concluding its first phase this Saturday. The future remains uncertain as neither side has commenced detailed negotiations for a second phase of peace talks.
Initially, the two parties had planned to discuss a second phase of negotiations. This phase would involve Hamas releasing all remaining hostages captured during an attack on October 7, 2023, in return for Israel freeing more Palestinian prisoners, establishing a permanent ceasefire, and withdrawing entirely from the Gaza Strip. However, these discussions are yet to occur, and the initial phase has been troubled by repeated disagreements.
Over the initial phase lasting six weeks, Hamas released 25 hostages alive and the bodies of four deceased captives. They plan to return another four remains shortly. There remain 59 captives, with 32 presumed dead. Israel had planned to release over 600 Palestinian prisoners, but this was delayed due to protests over the captives’ treatment during their release, where they were publicly displayed.
Talks are underway to potentially extend the first phase to facilitate the release of more captives, yet any further negotiations regarding the next phase are expected to be more challenging.
The crux of the second phase lies in the difficult choices Israel faces: securing the safe return of the hostages versus eliminating Hamas, their captors. Despite its weakened state, Hamas maintains control without opposition. It insists on a permanent ceasefire and Israel’s full military withdrawal in exchange for any remaining hostages. A potential third phase would address exchanging remains and starting the costly, years-long task of rebuilding Gaza.
Steve Witkoff, the former Middle East envoy, voiced hopes for an extension of the first phase to help commence the second. Nonetheless, Egypt, a principal diplomatic mediator, has stated it won’t discuss extending the initial phase until the second phase talks are initiated. According to confidential sources, simply starting these talks could keep the truce going, potentially halting hostilities further and allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Egypt has additionally demanded Israel complete its withdrawal from a strategic border area before advancing to the next phase. They insist that Israel adhere to these timelines as part of the agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under tremendous pressure as the weekend approaches. On one side, some government partners urge the war’s continuation, while on the other, public sentiment pushes for the return of hostages, especially after images of their distress have surfaced. Netanyahu has stressed the importance of rescuing the hostages but has clearly stated that Hamas cannot have a governing role in Gaza post-conflict. He is also against involving the Palestinian Authority, another political actor in the region.
Hamas, for its part, has suggested it is open to ceding control to other Palestinian factions, but the question of disarming remains complicated. The group has refused proposals that its leadership should go into exile and remains entrenched, demanding an end to Israeli occupation in several key areas.
The bitter stand-off of the first phase only widened the chasm between the two sides. The release of captives, some in poor physical condition, only inflamed tensions further on both sides, damaging the fragile peace efforts underway. Hamas and Israel traded accusations over breaches of the ceasefire, with reports of violence and questionable treatment of hostages further complicating the delicate situation.
In the broader international context, mixed signals have come from political leaders. While claiming credit for facilitating the truce, certain figures have issued ultimatums to Hamas, adding further complexity to the delicate situation. Proposals about population relocations and potential developments in Gaza have been met with widespread criticism from Palestinians and international observers, pointing to possible violations of international law.
As Israel and Hamas stand at this critical juncture, the pressure to navigate this intricate diplomatic pathway remains high, with the path forward uncertain and fraught with potential setbacks.
