Moscow and Minsk have announced plans for a joint military exercise set to take place in September, aimed at strengthening military partnerships amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The military drill, dubbed Zapad 2025, will gather more than 13,000 soldiers, according to Valery Revenko, an official from Belarus’s defense ministry. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will be invited to oversee the exercise to ensure transparency.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has maintained a strong grip on power for more than three decades, has consistently relied on Russian support and financial aid. In 2022, he granted Russia permission to utilize Belarusian territory for troop movements into Ukraine and to station some of its tactical nuclear weapons there. On February 24, 2022, Russian forces entered Ukraine from Belarus following a collaborative military drill that took place shortly prior. Ukraine and Belarus share a border that stretches 1,084 kilometers (or 672 miles).
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concerns regarding a notable increase in Russian military presence within Belarus, which could potentially pose a threat to NATO member countries like Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Russia has refuted claims about any intentions to attack NATO nations.
Revenko commented on Belarus’s willingness to engage in reciprocal military inspections with Poland, suggesting a framework that permits checking each other’s territories up to 80 kilometers (approximately 50 miles) deep. He noted that such gestures would indicate Poland’s commitment to fostering positive diplomatic relations, while any dismissal or avoidance of this proposal may alter their perspective on cooperation.
The United States and European Union have taken strong actions against Belarus through extensive sanctions, primarily in response to the country’s harsh crackdown on protests that erupted following the contentious 2020 presidential elections. Lukashenko’s decision to permit Russian troop deployments into Ukraine further exacerbated these international measures.
In December, a security agreement was signed by Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which included provisions for Belarus as Moscow’s closest ally to receive security guarantees, potentially involving Russian nuclear weapons as a deterrent against threats. At that time, Lukashenko urged Putin to place more sophisticated weaponry in Belarus, particularly the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile, which Russia had deployed against Ukraine in November.
Putin indicated that these Oreshnik missiles could be stationed in Belarus in the latter part of 2025, clarifying that while the Russian military would maintain overarching control of the missiles, Belarus would be involved in target selection decisions. This treaty coincided with Russia’s updates to its nuclear strategy, expanding the Russian nuclear umbrella to cover Belarus amidst escalating tensions with Western nations due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
While the exact number of tactical nuclear weapons currently deployed in Belarus remains undisclosed by Russia, Lukashenko revealed in December that several dozen exist within his country. This military arrangement enhances Russia’s capability to threaten multiple NATO allies situated in both Eastern and Central Europe.
