DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Even though Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was not physically present for the inaugural high-level discussions between Russia and the United States regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, his role as the host was pivotal, potentially reshaping the dynamics of an intense situation. As the 39-year-old heir apparent of Saudi Arabia, he has effectively led the nation, overshadowing his father, King Salman, who is 89 years old. Despite his leadership, Prince Mohammed’s international reputation has faced challenges, particularly due to the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, which U.S. intelligence believes was orchestrated under his directives.
Presently, Crown Prince Mohammed is central to the outreach efforts of the Trump administration toward Russia, a country that Saudi Arabia has maintained a careful relationship with, particularly through the OPEC+ oil alliance. His significant $600 billion investment proposal in the United States likely garnered the attention of President Donald Trump, leading to discussions about potentially designating Saudi Arabia as the site for the President’s first overseas visit of his current term.
With Trump also indicating that his first encounter with Russian President Vladimir Putin might occur in Saudi Arabia, the Crown Prince’s influence appears set to continue growing. As the summit commenced, Saudi state media announced that the talks in Riyadh were part of efforts to bolster global security and peace — a clear indication of the Crown Prince’s strategic involvement.
However, this carefully crafted strategy is laden with risks for Prince Mohammed, especially with the fragile ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict creating uncertainty. Trump’s repeated assertions about American ownership of Gaza have contributed to rising tensions in the Arab world. Palestinians aspire to establish a state encompassing both Gaza and the West Bank, a notion supported broadly by international entities. Recent Saudi media critiques of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signal a shift, especially as the Crown Prince seemed to cautiously consider the possibility of recognizing Israel under the Biden administration.
The suggestion of U.S. control over Gaza, however vague, has incited criticism from Saudi citizens who stand in solidarity with the Palestinian cause. In response to Trump’s comments, Saudi officials reiterated their unwavering stance, asserting the non-negotiable nature of Palestinian rights, without directly condemning the President. Additionally, Trump’s long-standing complaints regarding OPEC+ have added to the complexities of the Crown Prince’s position, particularly after he linked oil price cuts to alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
Despite these pressures, global oil prices have declined from the highs of over $120 per barrel noted in 2022 to around $75 today, casting doubt on the viability of Prince Mohammed’s ambitious projects, including the highly publicized $500 billion Neom city.
As Saudi Arabia navigates its diplomatic landscape, the Crown Prince has been increasingly engaged with Russia and China, welcoming relations that sidestep persistent Western critiques regarding human rights. Hosting conversations with both Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Putin underscores this shift. Moreover, the recent 2023 framework mediated by China to restore ties with Iran has empowered Prince Mohammed, demonstrating to the U.S. that Middle Eastern politics can be influenced by alternative powers. This shift is particularly significant following a 2019 Iranian attack that halved Saudi oil production, an episode that highlighted the perceived inadequacy of U.S. intervention in the region.
The Crown Prince’s diplomatic outreach reflects an intent to mitigate risks by expanding alliances with both traditional allies and rivals. A columnist from the Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Al Awsat characterized the U.S.-Russia summit as a move to restore communication between the world’s major powers, emphasizing Saudi Arabia’s growing prominence and altruistic influence in global politics.
Regardless of the conversations’ outcome, it appears that Crown Prince Mohammed’s initiatives are yielding favorable results. Though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy postponed his planned visit to Saudi Arabia initially scheduled for Wednesday, he indicated intentions to travel in March. There are also expectations regarding Trump’s potential visit, which would be welcomed by the Crown Prince, who expressed eagerness to collaborate with both the outgoing President and his administration. “We would be more than glad to work with you and with President Trump and his administration,” he expressed during a recent encounter with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, indicating a willingness to forge partnerships that extend beyond Saudi Arabia, fostering regional and global collaboration.
