CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — Recent observations indicate a slight increase in the threat level posed by a newly identified asteroid, but the likelihood of it impacting Earth remains low. Current data suggests that asteroid 2024 YR4 has about a 2% chance of colliding with our planet in 2032, which conversely means there is a 98% possibility that it will safely pass by. As astronomers gain a better understanding of its trajectory around the sun, these odds are expected to change, potentially reducing the risk to zero in the future.
NASA, alongside the European Space Agency, plans to utilize the Webb Space Telescope in March to study this near-Earth asteroid before it becomes invisible. The next opportunity for scientists to observe 2024 YR4 will be in 2028 when it passes by once again.
Asteroids, which are significantly smaller than planets, are primarily rocks orbiting the sun, and they are believed to be remnants from the solar system’s formation approximately 4.6 billion years ago. A vast number of these objects reside in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, where millions can be found. Occasionally, some get ejected from this area and can end up on varied trajectories, like 2024 YR4.
The asteroid was initially discovered in December by a telescope in Chile and is estimated to measure between 130 feet to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) across. Observations with the Webb telescope are anticipated to yield more accurate measurements of its size.
In the initial assessments, NASA and the European Space Agency computed the chances of a collision at just above 1%. As of Thursday, that estimate had incrementally increased to around 2%, but this is still considered “extremely low” by NASA. The agency warns that until there is a clearer understanding of the asteroid’s solar orbit, the chances of an impact will likely fluctuate and could well decrease to zero.
Larry Denneau, a senior software engineer with the University of Hawaii’s asteroid impact alert system, stated, “There’s no need to worry. It’s an intriguing subject, not a cause for panic. Let the observation process unfold for definitive results.”
In a related instance, NASA declared that another asteroid, known as Apophis, which posed initial concerns, was deemed harmless when new observations ruled out any potential for an impact in 2068.
Experts assert there is no cause for alarm regarding 2024 YR4 at this stage. Paul Chodas, the director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, conveyed that the rising impact probability is not surprising and emphasized that it is expected to drop to zero eventually.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s size and trajectory, its potential landing site and the impacts of such a collision remain undetermined. If 2024 YR4 ends up being on the smaller scale, any possible impact could be localized, reminiscent of the Tunguska event in 1908, which devastated a vast area of forest in Siberia. Conversely, if it approaches sizes near 330 feet (100 meters), the effects would be far more significant.
Chodas noted that once the Webb telescope accurately identifies the asteroid’s size, NASA could better calculate how serious any potential impact might be and assess how feasible it would be to redirect the asteroid if necessary. NASA has already undertaken measures to nudge asteroids, notably with its Dart spacecraft’s successful test in 2022 when it intentionally crashed into a harmless asteroid to modify its orbit around another larger asteroid.
