NEW YORK — The competition for this year’s Oscar Best Picture award is shaping up to be as intricate as the inner workings of a Vatican conclave. Similar to Edward Berger’s film, which explores the complexities behind the selection of a pope, the Academy Awards have witnessed various frontrunners emerge and fall away as the March 2 ceremony approaches, where all eyes will be on the Dolby Theatre.
Currently, Sean Baker’s “Anora” stands out as the leading contender, buoyed by significant wins at the Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards, both of which have historically predicted Oscar outcomes. The upcoming Screen Actors Guild Awards and BAFTAs will provide critical insights as the final voting nears.
Unlike last year’s race, where “Oppenheimer” maintained a strong lead throughout the season, this year’s nominees exemplify unpredictability, with at least half still in the running as the announcement date looms. Below, the films are ranked from least to most likely to secure the coveted best picture prize.
10. “Nickel Boys”
In a merit-based ranking, RaMell Ross’s film would undoubtedly be positioned first. Its innovative first-person narrative approach introduced a fresh cinematic style to American filmmaking. While it appeared close to receiving a nomination, we can appreciate its presence among the year’s best.
9. “Dune: Part Two”
Denis Villeneuve’s continuation of his adaptation of Frank Herbert’s work generated substantial buzz and received ten nominations for its predecessor, winning six. However, the sequel appears less formidable in this awards season, possibly securing a couple of Oscars in categories like visual effects and sound, despite the challenges that sequels face at such events.
8. “I’m Still Here”
Walter Salles’ compelling depiction of political defiance under Brazil’s military regime has climbed the ranks unexpectedly. Initially an international underdog, the film has become a sensation in Brazil. Though it is unlikely to clinch best picture, its influence in the international film category against “Emilia Pérez” cannot be overlooked.
7. “The Substance”
Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror feature has emerged as a strong competitor, defying initial expectations, especially for Universal, who sold the film to Mubi for distribution. With five nominations, it holds potential in the best actress department, where Demi Moore is currently favored. However, competition from Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) adds tension to the race.
6. “Emilia Pérez”
Jacques Audiard’s drug-themed musical leads in nominations with thirteen but has faced setbacks due to controversy surrounding its star. While it remains a formidable contender with such a high number of nominations, it may now focus more on salvaging its position in supporting categories, such as best supporting actress for Zoe Saldaña.
5. “Wicked”
As we move into the top contenders, Jon M. Chu’s adaptation certainly has numerous fans. However, it finds itself lacking crucial elements for a best picture victory, including a best director nod for Chu. Despite its strong performance on the musical front, the film’s overall odds are complicated by strong competition.
4. “Conclave”
This film could very well be the unsung favorite among voters. Berger’s thriller involving a papal election has garnered widespread appreciation, and depending on how votes are distributed, it could surprise everyone. However, lacking a major win so far and without a director nomination puts its chances in jeopardy.
3. “A Complete Unknown”
James Mangold’s film about Bob Dylan is also widely admired, with no prior wins to its name. Its increased visibility could foster an unexpected upset. The film’s lead, Timothée Chalamet, also adds considerable star power, which tends to resonate with voters keen on reflecting future successes in their selections.
2. “The Brutalist”
Previously a frontrunner, Brady Corbet’s ambitious postwar film has already made an impact with awards from Venice and the Golden Globes. With ten nominations, it has been celebrated as a groundbreaking piece of cinema despite its lengthy runtime, which might deter some Oscar voters from viewing it in full.
1. “Anora”
After some fluctuations during the awards season, “Anora” has reclaimed its status as the film to beat, especially following its wins at key industry events. If it secures a SAG Award win, the Best Picture race may well be decided. Historical precedent shows that similar achievements don’t always guarantee success, but with its Palme d’Or win at Cannes, “Anora” has solid backing, particularly from international voters.
With a vital connection to the legacy of ’70s filmmaking, Baker’s film offers a poignant narrative that resonates with both the indie spirit of today and the iconic moments of Hollywood’s past. As the Oscars draw near, the excitement surrounding these contenders continues to build.
