GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador — In a surprising turn of events, Daniel Noboa, who has only recently dipped his toes in the political waters and lacks a major political infrastructure, managed to secure a spot in the runoff of Ecuador’s 2023 snap elections. This came after outpacing several established candidates, and he is now set to face off against the protégé of the country’s most influential president of the last two decades.
The young millionaire, a 37-year-old heir to a significant banana empire, continued to astonish the nation by winning a 16-month presidency. This Sunday, Noboa aims to secure a full four-year term, allowing him to persist with his aggressive crime-fighting policies that attract part of the electorate, but have raised concerns regarding their legal and ethical boundaries.
Diego Morales, a security guard based in the capital, Quito, shared his support for Noboa, stating, “You can see that he is trying to take out criminals,” praising his efforts to tackle the escalating violence that has plagued the country in recent years.
Noboa’s political journey embarked in 2021 when he was elected to the National Assembly and took the reins of the Economic Development Commission. At 18, he established an event organizing business before joining his family’s Noboa Corporation, where he held various managerial roles in shipping, logistics, and commercial sectors.
In the October 2023 runoff election, triggered by then-President Guillermo Lasso’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and cut his own term short, Noboa triumphed over leftist candidate Luisa González, who has ties to former President Rafael Correa, known for his populist yet fiscally conservative governance from 2007 to 2017. As the election closes in, Noboa and González stand out as the leading candidates among 15 others vying for the presidency.
To achieve an outright win, a candidate must secure either 50% of the votes or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the nearest competitor. Should a runoff be necessary, it will take place on April 13.
During his short time in office, Noboa has managed to reduce the homicide rate significantly, dropping from 8,237 murders—equivalent to 46.18 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023—to 6,964, or 38.76 per 100,000, the previous year. Security consultant Hugo Acero noted that many citizens recognize Noboa’s commitment to enhancing security, pointing out that such achievements guarantee votes for re-election.
However, despite the strides made, the murder rate remains alarmingly elevated compared to 2019’s figures of 1,188 homicides, or 6.85 per 100,000. Data indicates that the country may exceed 2023’s numbers this year, with January alone recording 731 murders, including 244 in the coastal city of Guayaquil.
Noboa’s approach to governance has attracted scrutiny both domestically and internationally. He declared a state of internal armed conflict in January 2024, which allowed him to deploy the military to specific areas, particularly prisons overrun by organized crime. He shocked many globally when he sanctioned a police raid on Mexico’s embassy to apprehend former Vice President Jorge Glas, a fugitive who had taken refuge there.
Additionally, while campaigning, Noboa granted significant authority to Vice President Verónica Abad, an unelected official, as stipulated by Ecuador’s democratic regulations. However, tensions between Noboa and Abad surfaced soon after he took office, leading to her being assigned to ambassadorship in Israel, a move she described as a “forced exile.”
According to María Cristina Bayas, a professor at Quito’s University of the Americas, Noboa has shown a readiness to manipulate laws and constitutional provisions to maintain control over his administration, a tactic he may continue if re-elected.
