VILNIUS, Lithuania — Almost 35 years after departing from the Soviet Union, the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will finalize their transition away from electricity-grid connections with Russia and Belarus this weekend, aligning themselves instead with their European Union partners.
This strategic move to disconnect from the energy resources of Russia, a country rich in oil and gas, is laden with both geopolitical insights and symbolic weight. The momentum for this disconnection significantly increased following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin three years ago, which severely strained Moscow’s relationship with the EU.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus?da expressed the significance of this step, stating in a recent interview, “This is a physical disconnection from the last remaining element of our reliance on the Russian and Belarusian energy system.”
On Sunday, a ceremonial event is planned, attended by EU officials including President Ursula von der Leyen, where a specially designed 9-meter (29.5-foot) tall countdown clock in downtown Vilnius will mark the end of electricity links between the Baltic states and Russia.
The complex relationship between these Baltic states and Russia has been fraught with tension since they regained their independence from the USSR in 1990, a situation worsened by Russia’s aggressive military actions in Ukraine since 2022. Over the years, the countries have dismantled sixteen power lines that previously connected them with Russia and Belarus. In their place, they have established a new grid system that integrates them with the EU, which includes underwater cables across the Baltic Sea.
On Saturday, all remaining connections—transmission lines between the Baltic states and Russia, Belarus, and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave—will be switched off systematically. Subsequently, these countries will operate independently in an “island operation mode” for the next 24 hours before linking with the Continental European and Nordic grids through connections with Finland, Sweden, and Poland.
The Kaliningrad region, which lacks land connections to mainland Russia, has, as per Litgrid, Lithuania’s transmission system operator, already developed its independent power generation capabilities.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that the Baltic nations had made their plans known well in advance and stated that the Russian energy sector has prepared adequately for the forthcoming disconnect to preserve smooth operations on their end. “We have taken all necessary measures to ensure reliable and uninterrupted operation of our unified energy system,” Peskov commented to the media.
Despite the advance notifications, the Baltic countries remain vigilant against potential retaliatory actions from their former Soviet counterparts. The ongoing risk of cyberattacks is high, according to Litgrid, which has called for heightened security measures, collaboration, and robust cybersecurity practices to deal with possible threats effectively.
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Sili?a highlighted concerns regarding possible provocations, asserting that Latvia is adequately prepared and that military and national guard services are enhancing their security protocols. “Clearly there are risks, we understand that very well. But the risks are identified and there is a contingency plan in case these risks materialize,” she remarked.
Following the announcement of the disconnection plans, various propaganda efforts have emerged, spreading disinformation about potential blackouts, dire energy shortages, and exorbitant costs for consumers. Residents in central Vilnius expressed familiarity with such rumors. “We heard those rumors, but we are used to such things already,” commented retired teacher Jolanta Karavaitien?, emphasizing the necessity of stepping away from Russian energy ties.
Nonetheless, some residents are taking extra precautions. Reports have indicated a spike in generator purchases, with Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR noting that sales surged significantly compared to previous years. Meanwhile, appliance retailers like Bauhof and Ehituse ABC noticed increased demand for generators, prompting limitations on customer purchases.
The journey towards energy independence for the Baltic states has involved extensive efforts spanning decades. Lithuania made a pivotal decision to close the Soviet-built Ignalina nuclear power plant in 2003 due to safety concerns raised by the European Union, leading to its decommissioning in 2009.
The nation also invested in an offshore oil terminal in the Baltic Sea in 1999, which later became its exclusive crude oil import point after Russia unexpectedly curtailed oil deliveries through its extensive Druzhba pipeline system.
Rokas Masiulis, the CEO of Litgrid, noted that Lithuania has endured significant losses due to previous Russian actions, such as the cessation of oil supplies and soaring gas prices. He reassured that with advancements in renewable energy like solar and wind, Lithuania is now more secure, stating, “So we are safe.” This disconnection from Russia, according to Masiulis, does not adversely affect either party, as they are merely parting ways after a period of interdependence.
He acknowledged the extensive efforts made to rebuild power lines and develop new connections that focus on Western integration, labeling it a technological achievement. “Actions by Russia — by them being aggressive and pushing their neighbors — has really helped us,” Masiulis remarked, adding that while the Baltic states faced challenges like rising energy costs, they were ultimately spurred into action, resulting in the establishment of alternative energy routes. “Now we’re in much better state than we were before,” he concluded.
