NEW ORLEANS — In the world of the NFL, games that are closely contested often hinge on just a few critical moments, making them unpredictable. However, when it involves Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, they have consistently come out on top in such nail-biters.
As they prepare to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the upcoming Super Bowl, the Chiefs boast an impressive streak of winning 17 consecutive games that were decided by a single possession, a record in the league. This includes four of those victories in postseason play, culminating in last season’s thrilling overtime triumph in the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers.
Historically, the previous record for consecutive one-possession victories stood at 13, which was set by the New England Patriots in the 2003-04 seasons. According to analytics from NFL NextGen, the odds of Kansas City achieving such a remarkable feat were roughly 1 in 4,480, based on their win probability when entering the fourth quarter of those games.
The Chiefs’ most recent defeat in a tight game occurred on Christmas Day during the 2023 season, where they fell 20-14 to the Las Vegas Raiders, a game in which they did not possess the ball during the second half with the opportunity to tie or take the lead.
Among quarterbacks, Mahomes shines brightest in high-pressure situations, particularly during the playoffs. Kansas City has triumphed in nine of their last ten playoff games decided by a single possession since Mahomes took the helm, with him leading the charge during fourth-quarter comebacks or overtime scenarios in six of those. Only Tom Brady has a greater career total of fourth-quarter playoff comebacks, having achieved nine.
Mahomes has found himself trailing in playoff contests during the fourth quarter on nine occasions, managing to orchestrate six comeback victories and forcing two matches into overtime. The only instance where Kansas City didn’t at least tie the game was in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay after the 2020 season, where they entered the final quarter down 31-9.
Throughout his career, Mahomes has faced a deficit in playoff games during the fourth quarter 16 times, when trailing by one to eight points. His performance in those situations has been remarkable, leading to five game-tying field goals, ten touchdowns that put Kansas City ahead, and just one punt. He has completed 40 of 56 passes for 552 yards, with five touchdown passes, a rushing score, no turnovers, and an impressive passer rating of 132.4 during these critical drives. In contrast, all other quarterbacks in similar playoff situations since Mahomes became a starter in 2018 have combined for a significantly lower passer rating of 72.3.
In addition to Mahomes, Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley is on the cusp of breaking several records as he prepares for his first Super Bowl. Barkley requires just 30 rushing yards to eclipse the single-season record for combined regular season and playoffs set by Terrell Davis of the Denver Broncos, who accumulated 2,476 yards during the 1998 season. Furthermore, Barkley is only 3 yards away from surpassing Davis’ record of 2,762 total yards from scrimmage held since that season.
Barkley could also aim to conquer John Riggins’ single-season playoff rushing record, which stands at 610 yards achieved over four games in the 1982 season. To break this mark, Barkley would need to rush for 169 yards on Sunday, a total he has reached three times this season. Additionally, he only needs 57 rushing yards to join an elite group of players who have amassed at least 500 rushing yards in a single postseason—alongside Davis (581 in 1997) and Riggins.
For his part, Mahomes would enter an exclusive club if he finishes with a minimum of 28 rushing yards on Sunday, bringing his Super Bowl rushing total to 200 yards. Only seven players have managed to reach this threshold, with Franco Harris leading the way at a remarkable 354 yards.
Throughout the season, the Eagles struggled to start strong offensively, being the first squad in 33 years to go scoreless in the opening quarter for their first seven games. With merely 17 points scored in the first quarter during the first 14 weeks, they ranked lowest in the league. However, this sluggish trend took a turn in the last two months, as Philadelphia exploded for 45 first-quarter points in their final four regular-season games, including a remarkable 21-point first quarter against Washington in Week 16, and another 37 points across three playoff games.
The Eagles have now become just the third franchise in history to notch double-digit first-quarter points in three playoff outings, joining the ranks of Green Bay in 1995 and Denver in 1997.
In terms of kicking prowess, if the outcome comes down to a long field goal, the Eagles may find themselves at a disadvantage. Jake Elliott has had a tough season, converting only 1 of 8 attempts from 50 yards or more, which includes a missed 54-yard attempt against Washington in the NFC Title Game. His 12.5% success rate represents the worst for any team with at least five attempts since 1994.
Kansas City’s Harrison Butker, on the other hand, holds the NFL record with six successful field goals of at least 50 yards in the postseason, with just one miss. He established a Super Bowl record last year with a 57-yard kick against San Francisco and previously hit a game-winner from 27 yards against the Eagles in 2021.
Additionally, Elliott has struggled with consistency, missing three extra points this postseason and accumulating the highest total of missed kicks (13) throughout this season.
The historical competition between conferences has seen its share of fluctuations over the years, with the AFC clinching 11 titles from Super Bowl III to XV. Conversely, the NFC dominated with 13 consecutive victories starting after the 1984 season. However, the recent successes of Kansas City and New England have leveled the score with both conferences standing at 29 wins each. Should the Chiefs secure a victory on Sunday, the AFC would reclaim its lead for the first time since the 1980s.
