CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — A recently identified asteroid poses a slight risk of colliding with Earth in 2032, as reported by space agency officials. The likelihood of an impact has been calculated to be just over 1%.
“We are not concerned at this point due to the more than 99% chance that it will miss,” explained Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. “However, it is important to monitor closely.”
Discovered last month using a telescope based in Chile, the near-Earth asteroid, referred to as 2024 YR4, measures approximately 130 to 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) in diameter.
Scientists are actively tracking the asteroid, which is currently moving away from Earth. As they gain a clearer understanding of its orbit around the sun, Chodas and his team anticipate that the potential threat to our planet could decrease to zero as time progresses.
According to NASA and the European Space Agency, the asteroid is expected to gradually dim over the next few months. During this time, some of the world’s most advanced telescopes will continue to observe it to refine their measurements of its size and trajectory. Once it disappears from view, it will not reappear until it makes another pass by Earth in 2028.
The asteroid made its closest approach to Earth on Christmas Day, passing at a distance of about 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers), which is roughly twice the distance to the moon. It was officially identified two days later.
Chodas mentioned that researchers are analyzing sky survey data from 2016, which indicates the asteroid also came near Earth during that time.
If they can locate the asteroid in the historical images, scientists will be able to assess the likelihood of a potential impact, as Chodas noted: “If we don’t find such detection, the probability of impact will only gradually change as we incorporate more observations.”
According to the European Space Agency, Earth experiences impacts from asteroids of this size every few thousand years, with the possibility of significant damage. For this reason, it has now become the top entry on the ESA’s risk list for asteroids.
Should the asteroid collide with Earth, the potential event would be on December 22, 2032; however, it remains far too early to predict where a landing might occur.
Fortunately, NASA reports that currently, there are no other known large asteroids with an impact probability exceeding 1%.
