DAKAR, Senegal — Recently, the intensity of conflict has surged in Eastern Congo, with rebels capturing important towns and advancing towards Goma, the final stronghold of the Congolese government in the area bordering Rwanda. The M23 rebel group, benefitting from Rwandan support, has led an offensive that has overwhelmed local health facilities, with hundreds of injured individuals arriving daily, as civilians find themselves in the midst of fierce combat. The ongoing violence has already displaced thousands of people, further deepening an existing humanitarian crisis and raising alarms over the potential for a wider regional conflict.
What’s the current situation on the ground? The sound of explosions from Goma’s fringes has echoed through the city of approximately 2 million inhabitants this week. Schools and businesses have shuttered, while law enforcement has increased its presence. Military checkpoints have been hastily established, rigorously inspecting all vehicles. Tragically, the governor of North Kivu province, where Goma serves as the capital, has succumbed to injuries he incurred while visiting troops on the frontline. Maj. Gen. Peter Cirimwami’s specific circumstances surrounding his injury remain unclear.
On Thursday, M23 forces successfully captured Sake, a town located just 27 kilometers (16 miles) from Goma, stirring widespread panic among the local population and raising fears that Goma might soon fall to the rebels. Earlier in the week, they took control of Minova, a strategically vital port on Lake Kivu, along with other locations like Katale and Masisi to the west of Goma. Most of Friday’s confrontations occurred near Kibumba, which is situated about 25 kilometers (15 miles) to the north of Goma, as well as around Sake.
Who are the M23 rebels, and what are their objectives? The M23 group — short for the March 23 Movement — emerges from a plethora of approximately 100 armed factions competing for dominance in the resource-rich eastern region of Congo, a conflict that has been ongoing for decades. Lately, the M23 has dramatically expanded its territorial claims by capturing multiple towns and surrounding Goma. Established in 2012, the group originally formed following the unsuccessful integration of ethnic Tutsis from the Congolese army, claiming to protect Tutsis from discrimination. However, many critics argue that this narrative serves as a facade for Rwanda to extend its economic and political influence in the area.
Analysis by experts highlights a longstanding issue of resource smuggling from Congo to Rwanda. Congolese officials increasingly accuse Rwanda of seeking control over essential local resources, and some suspect intentions of annexing portions of Congo.
What role does Rwanda have in this conflict? Multiple parties, including Congo, the United States, and U.N. specialists, accuse Rwanda of supporting the M23, a group that only possessed a few hundred fighters in 2021 but has now ballooned in size to around 6,500. Rwanda, while rejecting these accusations, has acknowledged that it has deployed troops and missile systems in eastern Congo under the pretext of ensuring its security. U.N. experts estimate that as many as 4,000 Rwandan troops may be currently operating within Congolese territory.
Experts suggest that Rwanda’s military involvement brings it into direct confrontation with Congolese forces, intensifying the political rift between the two nations. Should Congo formally declare war on Rwanda, analysts warn that it could escalate into a larger regional conflict within East Africa.
Amid the violence, many are again fleeing their homes. According to the U.N. refugee agency, over 400,000 individuals have been displaced in eastern Congo since the start of the year, significantly worsening the dire conditions at already overcrowded displacement camps surrounding Goma and contributing to increased cholera outbreaks. For instance, Jean Claude Bauma, aged 35, fled from Masisi after M23 captured his town and sought refuge with his family at a nearby camp. However, constant shelling forced him to move into the city’s center.
“Fear for our lives has become a constant. Ever since my children were born, we’ve been in this cycle of fleeing from war,” Bauma expressed. “Now, if it’s our end, I will face it here.”
Why is Goma pivotal for the rebels? Goma is essential not only as a trade and security hub but also for humanitarian efforts, with its airport playing a vital role in transporting much-needed supplies. The M23 previously took control of Goma in 2012, holding it for a week until international pressure, notably from the U.S. and Britain, forced them to relinquish it. Since 2021, Goma’s government, supported by Burundian and U.N. troops, has been effective in keeping the rebels at bay. Losing a city of such significance would offer a considerable boost to the M23 while being a significant setback for government forces.
The fall of Goma would likely lead to disastrous consequences for the hundreds of thousands of civilians residing there, exposing them to increased human rights violations and various forms of abuse, according to Ravina Shamdasani from the U.N. human rights office. There are also grave concerns about the safety of humanitarian workers, with Francois Moreillon, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Congo, stressing that an evacuation of hospital personnel could leave patients vulnerable. “This situation remains entirely unacceptable,” Moreillon concluded.
