Miami (7-8) is set to face Cleveland (3-12) on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. EST, broadcast on CBS. BetMGM has the Dolphins favored by 6 1/2 points. In terms of performance against the spread this season, Miami has a record of 6-9 while Cleveland sits at 4-11. Historically, the Dolphins lead the series against the Browns with a 10-9 record, having secured a victory in their last encounter, where Miami defeated Cleveland 39-17 on November 13, 2022.
Last week saw the Dolphins triumph over San Francisco with a score of 29-17, whereas the Browns experienced a defeat against the Bengals, ending 24-6. Miami’s offense ranks 18th overall, with a rushing offense at 25th and passing at 15th, while their scoring offense is 23rd. Defensively, the Dolphins rank 8th overall, 6th against the run, 11th against the pass, and also sit 10th in scoring defense. On the other hand, the Browns find themselves in the 25th spot for overall offense, 27th for rushing, 19th for passing, and dead last in scoring at 31st. Cleveland’s defense ranks 19th overall and 14th against the pass, but it is tied for 26th in scoring defense.
A key player for the Dolphins to keep an eye on is defensive end Zach Sieler. He has achieved at least one sack in five out of the last six games, including a sack against Brock Purdy recently. With 8.5 sacks, Sieler ranks second among defensive tackles this season, with only the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence ahead of him, and he is the leading defensive tackle in the AFC. The Browns’ offensive line has struggled lately, allowing four sacks on quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his last start, giving Sieler an opportunity to capitalize.
For the Browns, defensive end Myles Garrett will be celebrating his 29th birthday during the team’s last home game of the season. As the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, he is looking to extend his strong performance; last week, he surpassed 100 career sacks and joined Lawrence Taylor as one of the few players to record at least 12 sacks for five consecutive seasons. Currently, he has 12 sacks this season and is on track to become the first player to achieve 14 sacks in four straight years.
The matchup to watch is between Dolphins running back De’Von Achane and the Browns’ linebackers. Achane has proven to be versatile with impressive rushing and receiving numbers, making him a major threat for defenses, particularly on outside runs. His ability to break tackles could lead to substantial gains or even touchdowns.
In terms of injuries, the Dolphins are facing difficulties as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been downgraded to doubtful due to a hip injury sustained in practice. Tyler Huntley would be expected to step in if Tagovailoa is unable to play. Additionally, cornerback Kendall Fuller is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle’s status is uncertain due to a knee issue. As for the Browns, Thompson-Robinson has been nursing a calf injury but he is likely to start unless it worsens. Also out for Cleveland are tight end David Njoku (knee), defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo (knee), and wide receiver Cedric Tillman (concussion). Defensive tackle Shelby Harris has also been placed on injured reserve due to an elbow injury, which affects the team’s depth.
In historical context, Miami has won three of the last four matchups following a four-game losing streak to the Browns. While Cleveland holds a favorable home record against the Dolphins, past matchups show that Miami had a six-game winning streak from 1988 to 2004 against Cleveland.
Statistically, both teams are vying for a playoff spot, with Miami caught in a tie with Indianapolis and Cincinnati at 7-8. A win in their final two games may not be enough for the Dolphins to secure a playoff berth, as they would also require losses from teams like the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. Miami recently clinched its fifth consecutive season with a winning record at home, showing a stark contrast between their home (5-2) and away (2-5) performances. Tagovailoa recently threw his 100th career touchdown, showcasing his consistency by hitting Tyreek Hill for a scoring reception. Meanwhile, Achane has proven pivotal in the ground game as well, leading with 120 rushing yards last week.
Dolphins linebacker Jordyn Brooks has been particularly effective, accumulating 128 tackles, marking a significant season for a Miami defender. Additionally, Calais Campbell has reached a career milestone of 900 tackles, demonstrating his longevity in the league. Cleveland’s Thompson-Robinson showed promise last week but his hesitation in the pocket may have contributed to the high sack count. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has a connection to Cleveland, having once served as their wide receiver coach in 2014.
As fantasy angles emerge, Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has emerged as a reliable option, tying with Achane for the team lead in receptions and touchdowns. Given the Browns’ struggles against tight ends, Smith could capitalize on this to deliver a strong performance.
Overall, the matchup carries playoff implications and showcases several key player narratives and injuries that could significantly influence the outcome of the game.
