Atlanta (8-7) squares off against Washington (10-5) this Sunday at 8:20 p.m. EST, with the game airing on NBC. The Commanders enter as 4-point favorites according to BetMGM NFL odds. Looking at their performance against the spread, the Falcons stand at 7-8 while the Commanders sit at 9-6. In their historical matchups, Washington holds the advantage with an 18-10-1 record. The two teams last clashed on October 15, 2023, when the Commanders emerged victorious with a 24-16 win in Atlanta.
In their latest outings, the Falcons delivered a decisive 34-7 victory over the Giants, while the Commanders managed an exhilarating 36-33 win against the Eagles. Currently, the Falcons rank 9th overall, 12th in rushing, 6th in passing, and 19th in scoring. Conversely, the Falcons’ defense sits at 13th overall, with 12th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 19th in scoring. The Commanders’ offense is 5th overall, with a 3rd place ranking in rushing, 16th in passing, and 4th in scoring. Defensively, Washington is also as strong, ranking 10th overall but struggles with the rushing game down in 29th, while ranking 4th in passing and 18th in scoring. When it comes to turnovers, Atlanta has a differential of minus-5, while the Commanders hold a plus-2 advantage.
A player worth watching for the Falcons is rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is stepping into a more challenging environment after an impressive first start against the Giants. Facing Washington’s strong pass rush, highlighted by Dante Fowler Jr., Penix will likely rely on the skills of running back Bijan Robinson more and will need to make tougher throws to secure a win.
As for the Commanders, running back Brian Robinson Jr. will be in the spotlight after fumbling twice in the previous game against Philadelphia. Despite only one touchdown in his last four matches, Robinson is pivotal, especially with injuries affecting other offensive players. Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive strategy leverages rushing to create passing opportunities, making Robinson’s performance crucial with Austin Ekeler sidelined due to injury.
The key matchup for this contest centers on Commanders’ rookie QB Jayden Daniels against the Falcons’ pass defense. The Falcons recently capitalized on turnovers, scoring two defensive touchdowns in their last game. Daniels himself has performed well recently, throwing five touchdown passes to halt the Eagles’ 10-game winning streak. So far, the prime-time spotlight hasn’t fazed him, which raises intrigue about his upcoming performance.
In terms of injuries, the Falcons will be monitoring cornerback Antonio Hamilton, who exited the game with a quadriceps injury, along with Kevin King, who has a concussion. For Washington, cornerback Marshon Lattimore is dealing with recurring hamstring issues, while right tackle Andrew Wylie (groin) and wide receiver Dyami Brown (hamstring) were injured in the game against the Eagles. Meanwhile, there’s potential for defensive tackle Jonathan Allen to make a comeback after more than two months recovering from pectoral surgery, which was initially expected to sideline him for the season.
Historically, Washington has claimed victory in their last three encounters, with teams facing each other for the fourth consecutive season. This matchup is historic as it marks the first prime-time game featuring two rookie quarterbacks selected in the first round — Daniels at No. 2 and Penix at No. 8. Notably, the Falcons have turned to Penix after benching former QB Kirk Cousins. A victory could secure a playoff spot for the Commanders, who also need a favorable outcome from the Buccaneers’ game against Carolina. An impressive 10-5 record puts Washington in unfamiliar territory, as it’s their first time achieving this since 1991; the last time they won 11 games was back in 1987, concluding in a Super Bowl victory. Adding to the narrative, Commanders’ coach Dan Quinn previously led Atlanta to a Super Bowl in the 2016 season, and this will be his first encounter with the Falcons since his departure.
As for individual stats, Penix completed 18 out of 27 passes for 202 yards last week, while Robinson rushed for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson has been consistent, accumulating over 100 yards from scrimmage in the last four games. And in terms of receiving, WR Drake London is on the verge of reaching his first 1,000-yard season, while defensive standout Matthew Judon recorded his first career interception last week. Daniels continues to impress, earning rookie of the week honors ten times, and has showcased his ability to make big plays, including five touchdowns in a critical win. Fantasy football players focusing on the Commanders may struggle to find reliable receivers aside from McLaurin, especially following Noah Brown’s recent injury.
