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In Paris, pastry chef Arnaud Delmontel meticulously prepares dough for croissants and pain au chocolat, which transform into beautifully golden, aromatic treats once baked. However, he faces a significant challenge: the cost of butter, a vital ingredient for these pastries, has surged by 25% since September alone. Despite the rising prices, Delmontel stands firm, rejecting the trend among some competitors who are opting for margarine instead.
“It’s a distortion of what a croissant is,” he stated firmly. “A croissant is made with butter.”
The price hike for butter has become a growing concern across Europe, exacerbated by post-pandemic inflation and the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine. This rise in butter prices poses yet another setback for consumers looking to bake holiday treats. In the 27-member European Union, butter prices have increased by an average of 19% between October 2023 and October 2024, with Slovakia seeing a staggering increase of 49%, followed by a rise of 40% in Germany and the Czech Republic. Further data from each country indicates that prices have continued to climb since then.
In Germany, for instance, a standard 250-gram (8.8-ounce) block of butter now typically costs between 2.40 and 4 euros ($2.49-$4.15) based on the brand and quality. The spike in butter prices is primarily attributed to a global milk shortage resulting from decreased production in key exporting countries like the United States and New Zealand, as highlighted by economist Mariusz Dziwulski from PKO Bank Polski.
Butter sold in Europe generally has a higher butterfat content compared to what is available in the United States. This regional distinction also means that food producers cannot mask price increases by downsizing packages, a tactic commonly known as “shrinkflation.”
The invention of margarine in the 19th century stemmed from a butter shortage in France, yet the French are among the largest consumers of butter in Europe, utilizing it abundantly in both baked goods and sauces. In Poland, butter holds such importance that the government maintains a stockpile of it as part of its strategic reserves, similar to its reserves for natural gas and COVID-19 vaccines. Recently, authorities announced the release of around 1,000 tons of frozen butter to help stabilize prices amidst rising costs.
Poland has seen butter prices jump by 11.4% between early November and early December alone, with a staggering 49.2% rise over the past year, bringing the price nearly to 37 Polish zlotys, or $9 per kilo (2.2 pounds). This situation hasn’t gone unnoticed by consumers like Danuta Osinska, a 77-year-old resident of Warsaw. “Every month butter gets more expensive,” she remarked while shopping at a discount grocery store.
Osinska and her husband cherish butter in various meals but now find themselves cutting back due to tight budgets and medication costs associated with their pensions. Consequently, they have resorted to using margarine, although they feel it lacks the same taste. “There is no comparison,” she reflected. “Things are getting harder and harder.”
Butter prices in Poland have transformed into a political issue, especially with the presidential election on the horizon. Opponents of the centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk are attempting to link him and his Civic Platform party to the rising costs, while others direct their criticism toward the national bank’s governor from a rival political faction.
Some shoppers are even basing their grocery choices on butter prices, which has resulted in price wars among supermarket chains—some of whom had previously kept prices low, ultimately hurting dairy farmers. According to Agnieszka Maliszewska from the Polish Chamber of Milk, the causes of the current butter inflation are rooted in domestic and global issues. She asserts that the primary problem in Poland is a lack of milk fat due to the shut down of dairy farms struggling with low profit margins and intense workloads.
Escalating energy costs tied to the conflict in Ukraine also significantly impact milk production. While there’s debate regarding the influence of climate change, Maliszewska does not see a direct connection to worsening butter prices. On the other hand, Dziwulski points to drought conditions as a likely factor affecting production levels. He adds that the drop in milk prices last year dissuaded investments and led dairy producers in the EU toward cheese production, which typically yields better returns.
Additionally, an outbreak of bluetongue disease, which adversely affects sheep, cows, and goats, has contributed to the downturn in butter production. In the United States, butter prices experienced a significant spike in 2022, reflecting a 33% increase to an average of $4.88 per pound during the year as dairy farmers grappled with high feed costs and heat stress on livestock. Prices in the U.S. dipped in 2023 but have recently surged again, peaking at $5 per pound in September.
Southern European nations, which primarily use olive oil, remain less impacted by butter price inflation and often do not share the same level of concern since their consumption of butter is considerably lower. Italy, for instance, witnessed a 44% rise in butter prices over the past year, but this has not sparked widespread alarm due to the country’s preference for olive oil even in desserts, despite being one of Europe’s largest butter producers.
As for Chef Delmontel, the stresses of rising ingredient costs weigh heavily on him. While he refuses to compromise by using margarine or decreasing the size of his croissants, he acknowledges that many of his peers have begun to downsize their pastries to manage expenses. “Or else you squeeze it out of your profit margin,” Delmontel concluded.
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