Pittsburgh (10-4) will face off against Baltimore (9-5) on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. EST, broadcasted on FOX. According to BetMGM, the Ravens are favored by 6.5 points. When it comes to betting records, the Steelers are currently 10-4 against the spread, while the Ravens sit at 7-6-1. Historically, the Steelers have the upper hand in their rivalry, leading the series 36-25, including their last encounter where they secured an 18-16 win on November 17, 2024, in Pittsburgh. The previous week saw the Steelers stumble against the Eagles, losing 27-13, while the Ravens achieved a decisive victory over the Giants with a score of 35-14.
In terms of offensive and defensive rankings for both teams, the Steelers are positioned 18th overall in offense, ranking 10th in rushing and 24th in passing, while also sitting 10th in scoring. Defensively, they rank 9th overall, 4th against the run, 22nd against the pass, and 6th in scoring defense. On the other hand, the Ravens boast the league’s top offense, rated 1st overall, with their rushing game at 2nd and passing at 3rd, and 3rd in scoring. Their defense, however, ranks lower overall at 17th, 1st in rush defense, 31st in pass defense, and 22nd in scoring defense. A crucial statistic to note is the turnover differential, where the Steelers lead with a remarkable plus-18, compared to the Ravens’ plus-2.
One key player for the Steelers to keep an eye on is linebacker Patrick Queen. The former Raven will be making his first trip back to Baltimore after signing a three-year contract with Pittsburgh in March. Queen had an impressive performance during their first meeting this season, recording 10 tackles and forcing a fumble that contributed to holding the Ravens to a season-low 329 yards.
For the Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson remains a focal point. He has been putting up impressive statistics this season, drawing MVP consideration, although Baltimore’s struggles to seize division control could hinder his chances. Historically, Jackson has faced challenges against the Steelers, winning just once in five games, and he has only played one game against them at home.
A critical matchup in this game will be the Steelers’ linebackers against the balanced Ravens offense. Both Jackson and running back Derrick Henry were unable to dominate in their earlier encounter this season, partly due to Baltimore’s three turnovers. Queen and fellow linebacker Nick Herbig were instrumental in creating those turnovers, combined with Payton Wilson’s interception.
Injuries may play a significant role in the game as well. For the Steelers, linebacker T.J. Watt (ankle) is expected to play despite missing early week practices, while wide receiver George Pickens will be sidelined for the third consecutive game with a hamstring issue. Backup quarterback Justin Fields (abdominal) is confirmed out, and defensive back Donte Jackson (back) along with defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi (groin) are listed as questionable. Safety DeShon Elliott (hamstring) is doubtful for the match.
Regarding injuries for the Ravens, wide receiver Nelson Agholor (concussion) and cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis (hamstring) have also missed practice time and are likely impacted.
Historically in this rivalry, the Steelers have recently excelled, having won eight out of their last nine meetings against the Ravens, including their last four encounters in Baltimore. Jackson, now in his seventh season, has only had five starts against Pittsburgh, with a disappointing 1-4 record in those games. Notably, many recent matchups have been tightly contested, with the last nine games — and 27 of the last 33 — being decided by a single score. Head coaches Mike Tomlin of the Steelers and John Harbaugh of the Ravens are in their 37th head-to-head match, a notable milestone in the NFL.
On a statistical note, Pittsburgh clinched a playoff berth last week and can secure its first AFC North title since 2020 with a win. Tomlin has a strong track record, boasting a 6-1 record in games where a victory would wrap up the division title. Historical records show that the Steelers have also performed well on Saturdays, holding a 38-29 all-time record.
The Steelers’ offense has struggled without the presence of Pickens, averaging a mere 143 passing yards without him compared to 271 yards earlier in the season when he played. However, tight end Pat Freiermuth has emerged as a reliable target, scoring in three consecutive games, marking a significant streak in franchise history.
T.J. Watt’s impact cannot be overstated, with the Steelers boasting a record of 79-37-2 when he is on the field and a stark contrast of 1-10 without him since his draft. Pittsburgh leads the league with 30 takeaways this season while sharing the top spot in turnover margin with Buffalo. In head-to-head matchups, Jackson has 5 touchdowns against 8 interceptions in his career games against Pittsburgh.
In the realm of individual performances, defensive tackle Cam Heyward continues to shine in his 14th season, leading NFL defensive tackles in total tackles and ranking second among interior linemen in sacks. Jackson is having a stellar season, topping league charts in passer rating, yards per pass attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and combined passing plus rushing yards. Interestingly, Baltimore’s defense has improved, allowing the fewest net yards in recent games, which poses a challenge for the Steelers’ offense.
From a fantasy perspective, in what is projected to be a closely contested and potentially low-scoring showdown, Steelers kicker Chris Boswell could be a valuable start. He was pivotal in the earlier meeting, accounting for all of Pittsburgh’s points in their previous encounter and currently leads the league in scoring.