Welcome to the reimagined postseason, where the race for the national championship kicks off at college campuses for eight out of the 12 teams competing in the College Football Playoff.
Get ready for some chilly football!
Snow is expected to taper off, leaving cloudy skies with temperatures descending into the 20s in South Bend, Indiana, for the Friday night clash between Indiana and Notre Dame.
Similarly, a northwest wind blowing at 10 to 15 mph will make the low-20s feel like the teens in State College, Pennsylvania, for the Saturday game featuring SMU and Penn State.
Columbus, Ohio, anticipates temperatures in the low 20s with a gentle breeze for the Saturday night showdown between Tennessee and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Austin, Texas, will have a much milder climate, with sunny skies and temperatures around 60 degrees when Clemson faces Texas.
The weather shouldn’t pose a significant challenge for the teams from Indiana, Notre Dame, and Ohio State, as they are well-accustomed to chilly afternoons and evenings. Tennessee has also experienced its share of cold games this season.
For SMU, this weekend’s game could break records for the coldest kickoff temperature in the program’s history. The previous lowest was 24 degrees, recorded during games against UCF in Dallas and Alabama in the Sun Bowl.
Head coach Rhett Lashlee has downplayed the impact of the severe weather, as his team regularly trains in the morning when temperatures hover in the 30s and 40s. In contrast, State College is projected to be much colder, presenting challenges, especially since only four players on SMU’s two-deep depth chart hail from areas outside the Sun Belt.
Here’s a closer look at the upcoming matchups, including seedings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
No. 10 seed Indiana vs. No. 7 seed Notre Dame (Notre Dame favored by 7.5 points)
An ideal venue marks the beginning of this 12-team playoff journey: Notre Dame Stadium, hosting this matchup between two teams from Indiana that have historically seen disparities in their performances.
The Hoosiers had a tough outing during their peak regular-season game, suffering a 23-point defeat against Ohio State. With even brighter lights on them in South Bend, for Indiana to prevail, it would need the Notre Dame defense—previously allowing 35 points and 577 yards against Southern California—to falter, along with maintaining the momentum of their top-ranked run defense to contain stars like Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price. Achieving both seems unlikely.
Prediction: Notre Dame wins 28-17.
No. 11 seed SMU vs. No. 6 seed Penn State (Penn State favored by 8.5 points)
Penn State comes into this game with more experience, having faced two rankings challenges and losing to both Ohio State and Oregon. Their home-field advantage in Happy Valley is immense, although the pressure mounts for coach James Franklin when it comes to high-stakes games—especially without a proven backup following the transfer of Beau Pribula.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has excelled in his role, leading the Mustangs to this stage, but overcoming Penn State will be a formidable challenge.
Prediction: Penn State wins 24-14.
No. 12 seed Clemson vs. No. 5 seed Texas (Texas favored by 11.5 points)
Clemson’s path to this game has been complex, requiring unexpected outcomes like Syracuse’s victory over Miami to secure a spot in the ACC title game. Moreover, they narrowly defeated SMU with a last-minute field goal.
Cade Klubnik now faces his high school rival, Quinn Ewers, in Austin. As enticing as it would be to continue the Clemson narrative, the Longhorns’ sheer talent makes it difficult to sustain.
Prediction: Texas wins 27-17.
No. 9 seed Tennessee vs. No. 8 seed Ohio State (Ohio State favored by 7.5 points)
Following a disappointing fourth straight loss to Michigan, Ohio State has had three weeks to contemplate the implications for coach Ryan Day, especially a potential firing should they fail against the Volunteers. The looming pressure is palpable.
On the other hand, Tennessee will enter without the weight of expectations. Coach Josh Heupel dismissed any notion of the Volunteers merely being happy to participate. With standout running back Dylan Sampson and a formidable defensive lineup, Tennessee possesses the right tools for an upset.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 24-23.
In conference championship week, predictions include a record of 6-4 straight up and 4-5 against the spread, bringing season totals to 217-61 and 139-137, respectively.