MANAMA, Bahrain — The situation for Iran’s theocratic regime appears to be deteriorating significantly. The decades-long endeavor to construct an “Axis of Resistance” composed of militant groups and proxies across the Middle East is now facing serious challenges. The recent Israeli offensive in Gaza, instigated by the surprise attack on Israel by Iranian-backed Hamas on October 7, 2023, marked a pivotal moment for Tehran.
This conflict has spilled over into Lebanon, where Israel has dealt severe blows to Iran’s foremost ally, Hezbollah, while executing airstrikes within Iran’s borders—an unprecedented act. Furthermore, the longstanding ally of Iran in Syria, President Bashar Assad, has seen his regime crumble. Sunday dawn saw a swift offensive by rebel forces taking over the ancient city of Damascus, effectively dismantling symbols of Assad’s over 50-year rule in the region.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a significant advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously described Assad and Syria as essential parts of the resistance framework in the area. He warned, “Without the Syrian government, this chain will break and the resistance against Israel and its supporters will be weakened.” The geographical importance of Syria for Iran cannot be overstated; it served as a critical conduit for transferring weapons and supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The loss of this route further undermines Hezbollah, which had accumulated a formidable arsenal on Israel’s doorstep.
Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates, articulated the severity of Iran’s predicament, stating that the events unfolding in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have shattered Iran’s deterrence strategy. Despite these setbacks, Iran retains the leverage of its nuclear program. Although it claims the program is solely for peaceful purposes, the potential for developing nuclear weapon capabilities continues to cast a long shadow over regional dynamics.
Although Iran’s grip on regional influence has weakened, some analysts maintain that it remains a critical player. Gargash noted the importance of engaging with Iran during this turbulent time to consider future directions. The shift in Iran’s influence is stark compared to a few years ago when it seemed to be gaining ground across the Middle East. The “Axis of Resistance” was at its peak during that era, with Hezbollah opposing Israel, Assad surviving contentious uprisings and civil conflict, and Iranian-backed groups causing significant loss to U.S. forces in Iraq.
In the early days of Syria’s civil strife, Iran and Hezbollah rushed to assist Assad when it appeared he might be on the verge of losing power. Their involvement was framed as a defense of Shiite religious sites in Syria, supported later by Russian forces launching a series of devastating airstrikes. This military intervention helped reclaim territory for the Assad regime, though the country remains divided between government and insurgent-controlled regions.
The rapid decline of Assad’s authority reveals his dependence on Iranian and Russian support, which proved insufficient at critical junctures. Meanwhile, Russia is entangled in its own protracted conflict following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Iran’s international sanctions tied to its nuclear ambitions have severely affected its economy.
Israel has viewed the dismantling of Iran’s regional network as a primary objective, albeit with caution regarding extremist elements among the rebels who have dethroned Assad. Recently, Israeli forces moved into a demilitarized buffer zone near the Golan Heights, citing temporary security measures. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Assad’s fall as a “historic day,” attributing it to Israel’s decisive actions against Hezbollah and Iranian support.
The Iranian leadership has long promoted the idea of their regional presence as a demonstration of national strength, but the decline of this influence could lead to domestic ramifications. Previous public anger over the billions Iran invested in supporting Assad has fueled widespread protests in the past years, highlighting the national sentiment against government expenditures in foreign conflicts amidst pressing local concerns.
Despite losing influence in Syria, Iran still possesses the means to assert its power in the region. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have continued their assaults on Israel and maritime movements in the Red Sea, although the frequency of these attacks has decreased recently without clarity from their leadership. Iran’s nuclear program also remains a focal point; while it insists on the program’s peaceful intentions, reports indicate that Iran had a coordinated nuclear weapons initiative until 2003.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has indicated that Iran may significantly increase its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile with advanced centrifuge capabilities. The potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons poses a serious threat to the global nonproliferation effort.
The region remains on edge, particularly concerning oil infrastructure, as any escalation could lead to wider attacks. Past assaults on oil facilities highlight the risk associated with conflicts escalating in the region. As tensions rise, both Iran and the broader Middle East face critical decisions about their future amidst instability.
Experts have stressed the importance of equilibrium in the area, noting that while stability is hard to maintain, instability can spread rapidly. This accentuates the necessity of focusing on a stable Middle East for all nations involved.
