Home World Live International Crisis Bashar Assad’s downfall after 14 years of conflict in Syria marks the conclusion of a longstanding ruling dynasty.

Bashar Assad’s downfall after 14 years of conflict in Syria marks the conclusion of a longstanding ruling dynasty.

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Bashar Assad’s downfall after 14 years of conflict in Syria marks the conclusion of a longstanding ruling dynasty.

BEIRUT — The recent ousting of Syrian President Bashar Assad marks the end of a tumultuous 14-year period during which he fought to retain power amid the country’s descent into a devastating civil war, characterized by a complicated mix of both regional and international influences. Assad’s exit highlights a stark difference from his initial rise to power in 2000, when many anticipated he would introduce reforms after years of authoritarian rule under his father. Back then, the 34-year-old ophthalmologist appeared as a progressive figure, but his demeanor would later transform as he confronted waves of dissent.

In March 2011, as protests erupted against his leadership, Assad adopted the repressive measures reminiscent of his father’s tactics to suppress dissent. The situation escalated, transforming protests into an all-encompassing civil war that saw Assad resort to targeting opposition-controlled regions with military force, aided significantly by allies such as Iran and Russia. Numerous human rights organizations have accused Assad’s regime of severe human rights violations, including widespread torture and extrajudicial killings within state-run detention facilities.

The conflict has resulted in nearly half a million fatalities and displaced millions, with many Syrians fleeing to neighboring nations including Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as seeking refuge in Europe. Assad’s departure concludes almost 54 years of uninterrupted rule by his family, creating a power vacuum and uncertainty regarding Syria’s future leadership.

Until recently, there appeared to be a relative stabilization of Assad’s regime as the conflict established frozen frontlines. Assad had regained control over much of Syria’s territory, while certain areas remained under opposition or Kurdish control. Despite the heavy economic sanctions imposed by Western nations, neighboring countries seemed increasingly accepting of Assad’s rule, as evidenced by Syria’s re-integration into the Arab League last year and the return of diplomatic recognition from Saudi Arabia.

The geopolitical landscape shifted rapidly following an unexpected offensive from opposition factions in northwest Syria in late November, which quickly destabilized Assad’s forces. Significantly distracted by other international conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and engagements involving Iran-aligned groups, Assad’s allies hesitated to provide crucial military assistance. Reports have since emerged suggesting that Assad may have fled as opposition groups seized control of the capital.

Bashar Assad’s rise to power was a twist of fate, coming after the tragic death of his older brother Basil, who was initially seen as the destined successor. Bashar was abruptly called back from his medical career in London, militarily trained, and promoted within the ranks, ultimately ascending to the presidency following his father’s passing in 2000. The timing allowed a rapid constitutional amendment to lower the age requirement for the presidency, paving his ascension.

Unlike his authoritarian father Hafez, Bashar appeared to represent a new breed of leadership. He was well-mannered and less intimidating, showcasing a seemingly progressive demeanor. His wife, Asma al-Akhras, was seen as modern and chic, diverging from the ostentatious displays that characterized many other Arab leaders. Upon assuming office, Bashar initially released political prisoners and fostered a brief period of open dialogue in a movement dubbed the “Damascus Spring.”

However, this opening was quickly stymied after a public petition for political reforms met with severe repression from the regime. Assad pivoted towards economic reforms, introducing measures aimed at easing restrictions, welcoming foreign investment, and cultivating a burgeoning private sector, which led to a newfound vibrancy in Syria’s economy.

On the global stage, Bashar maintained the foreign policy trajectory established by his father, focusing on the alliance with Iran and asserting claims over the Golan Heights despite avoiding direct military confrontations with Israel.

A major setback occurred in 2005, following the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon amid widespread accusations of involvement in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. This event catalyzed the rise of a pro-American government in Lebanon and further divided the Arab world into opposing camps. Throughout his presidency, Assad heavily relied on support from his Alawite sect and maintained ties with various powerful families that had operated under his father’s rule.

Assad’s regime was marked by the involvement of key family members, including his brother Maher, who led the enforcement against uprisings, and sister Bushra, who played crucial roles along with their connections. As protests swept through the region during the Arab Spring, Assad was adamant that his government would not experience a similar downfall, attributing the unrest to outside influences attempting to destabilize Syria.

Despite this dismissal of dissent, segments of Syria’s diverse populace, particularly minority groups, rallied around his narrative, fearing the rise of extremist factions more than they opposed the existing regime. Ironically, an email leaked from early 2011 revealed Assad joking about the political upheaval in neighboring nations, seemingly oblivious to the mounting pressures that would ultimately lead to his downfall.