DALLAS — On Tuesday evening, Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Representative Colin Allred will face off in a pivotal debate for their Texas Senate race, which could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
Nationally, Democrats have earmarked Texas as a potential opportunity to gain a Senate seat this year, even as they concentrate primarily on safeguarding their existing positions in states with closely contested races, including Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
Cruz has called on his party to recognize the seriousness of the contest, as he finds himself in another challenging race. His previous Senate campaign in 2018 was notably tight, concluding with only a slim margin of victory against opponent Beto O’Rourke.
The upcoming debate presents Allred—a Dallas congressman who has served three terms and played in the NFL—with a prime opportunity to elevate his profile among Texas voters. Central to Allred’s campaign is a strong defense of abortion rights, which he has vocally opposed in light of the state’s strict abortion legislation. This topic has resonated strongly with Democrats, even in traditionally conservative states, following the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling that diminished federal protections for abortion rights.
Cruz, having established a reputation as a staunch conservative in the Senate and previously running for president in 2016, has shifted his focus to highlighting his legislative priorities. He aims to portray Allred as excessively liberal, while Allred strives to showcase his moderate stance, bolstered by endorsements from former Republican representatives Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney.
Collectively, the candidates have raised nearly $100 million according to the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission. Furthermore, outside organizations have invested tens of millions of dollars within the campaign, positioning this contest among the most costly in the nation.
Despite Texas’s image as a staunchly Republican state and a lengthy spell without statewide Democratic victories, optimism has been on the rise within the party regarding their chances in the Lone Star State. Since former President Barack Obama experienced a significant loss of over 15 percentage points in Texas in 2012, subsequent elections have shown a narrowing gap. Former President Donald Trump’s victories shrank from a 9-point win in 2016 to just under a 6-point win in 2020, marking the most closely contested outcome for a Republican presidential candidate in Texas since 1996.
“Texas is a red state,” remarked Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston. “However, it’s not a ruby-red state.”
